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Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
US equities closed mixed: S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Dow +0.1%, with the semiconductor index down 3.4% on AI-revenue concerns. Brent rose 4.1% above USD104/bbl and WTI 3.6% to USD91.49 on Middle East tensions, though Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before…
Fed minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials expecting another hike by year-end, though the probability of an October move stayed low and a 25bp December hike was largely priced. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching their…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
September 2026 was the worst month of the year for US IG (-2.72%), US HY (-2.52%) and Asia IG (-2.04%) total returns, with Asia USD HY relatively resilient at -1.20%. The Fed's first hike in roughly three years pushed the 10Y UST to a 2026 high of 5.29% (30Y…
Treasury yields reached two-decade highs, with the 10Y at 5.31% and 30Y at 5.67%, while tech-led gains lifted the S&P 500 to near a record high. The dollar extended a three-week rally, nearing its strongest 2026 levels. Brent fell 1.9% to $100.32 after Saudi…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
US September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus ~90k expected, with August revised down to 133,000; unemployment edged up to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% MoM (3.0% YoY). The S&P 500 gained 0.73% on Friday, led by tech, while the 10-year…
US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
US 10-year Treasury yields closed at 5.2849% after softer August PCE (headline 3.4% y-o-y vs 3.7% consensus; core steady at 3.0%) initially lifted risk appetite, but the move reversed on resilient growth: 2Q GDP revised to 2.2% and ADP payrolls at 90k.…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
The US dollar remains resilient above 101 on the DXY, supported by elevated US yields despite softer PCE inflation (headline 3.4% y/y). Markets price a December Fed hike. USD/IDR hit resistance at 18,000 and pulled back, but MUFG stays cautious on IDR and…