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France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
MUFG's Henry Cook reviews France's draft 2027 budget, which targets a deficit cut from 5.4% to 5.0% of GDP in 2027 and a return to 3% by 2029. The 10Y OAT-Bund spread has widened to 150bp, the highest since 2012. MUFG is sceptical of the adjustment pace and…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
France's budget buys time but leaves structural deficits unresolved, keeping OAT-Bund spreads at risk of widening from 130bp toward 150bp. History suggests the euro's muted reaction could reverse, with a 3% risk premium buildup implying EUR/USD at 1.110 and…
European diesel imports face mounting pressure from a possible US export ban, the loss of Russian and Chinese supplies and low stocks. Since late February, crude is up 46% while European diesel has doubled. Europe, importing 46% of its diesel with 40% from…
France's 2027 budget cuts the deficit to 5% of GDP from 5.4% in 2026, the first step of consolidation. The effort is 1 pp of GDP, not 0.4 pp, since debt service and defence add 0.6 pp. One third comes from higher compulsory levies, two thirds from spending…
The eurozone sovereign bond market faces a structural regime shift: quantitative tightening, high real rates and stalled fiscal integration leave spreads exposed to national politics and the EU's ability to share risk. Italy's r-g turns slightly positive…
The ECB raised all three policy rates by 25bp in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, citing persistent inflation and stronger growth. Euro area inflation was 3.2% y/y with core at 2.4%, while the composite PMI rose to 53.1. Money markets now price…
Natixis's September 2026 US dual mandate snapshot: August payrolls rebounded 162k, broadly based, erasing earlier soft prints, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and headline 0.4% m/m. Because most policymakers already saw labor as near…
The S&P 500 fell 0.25% while its equal-weight version dropped 0.75%, a three-to-one gap. Implied correlation held at 11.17, above 72 of 85 stored sessions, and dispersion eased to 36.25, below median. Rate volatility set a third straight high, MOVE up 3.61%…
The Eurosystem is advancing the retail digital euro alongside the Pontes and Appia projects to keep central bank money relevant as payments digitalise and cash use declines. Two safeguards aim to limit disintermediation: a maximum holding balance, with some…
Czech industrial PMI edged down to 53.5 in September but stayed in expansion, with output and new orders rising on domestic and export demand. Job creation was the fastest since April 2022, easing unemployment concerns. Input costs rose on energy and…
France's 2027 draft budget targets a 5% deficit via €43bn of measures, but debt still rises to 121.7% of GDP in 2027. A modified budget passed via Article 49.3 is the likely path after difficult negotiations. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread has topped 130bp and…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
Bulgaria's economy grew 2.8% year-on-year in H1 2026, powered by private consumption and investment, but imports surged while exports fell, leaving net exports as a drag. ING forecasts 2.9% growth in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Inflation is expected to average…
The US dollar has gained 1.0-2.4% against major currencies since 17 September, driven by widening interest-rate differentials in favour of the US. EUR/USD fell over 3% from 1.17 to below its 24 June low of 1.1325, with next support at 1.10. Markets price…
The DXY dollar index is testing the year's highs near 101.80 as firm US activity data and ADP payroll signals keep Fed tightening expectations intact, despite a softer August PCE print. EUR/USD is at the year's lows, vulnerable to a deeper French OAT-Bund…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
US August core PCE was softer than expected (0.2% MoM, 3.0% YoY) on lower revisions, annualizing at 2.0%, though German September inflation hit a two-year high of 3.3%. US 2-10 yield curve steepened to 40bp as 10-year yields touched post-GFC highs above…
Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.8 to 55.6 in September, with output at its best since January 2022. Demand keeps growing despite the Iran war and high energy prices, helped by AI and defence spending, a stronger Eurozone, German buyers and chip…