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RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said monetary policy transmission remains intact despite mortgage offset buffers, with the exchange rate, wealth, saving and borrowing-cost channels all functioning. The harder question is whether conditions are…
MUFG keeps a cautious IDR bias, expecting USD/IDR at 18,350 in Q4 2026 and 18,500 in Q1 2027. Drivers include elevated US yields, an oil-driven trade balance squeeze, a harder Bank Indonesia trade-off and MSCI's consultation on reclassifying Indonesia from…
Westpac lowered its New Zealand 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr, citing higher assumed energy prices and a steeper near-term path for long-term interest rates that weigh on consumption and residential investment. A weaker NZ dollar…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
US inflation surprised higher, driven by tariffs and broad price pressures, but ING expects tariff refunds, cooling rents and 3% wage growth to bring inflation near 2% by Q2 next year. The AI investment boom, about a third of GDP growth this year, keeps…
MUFG notes UK August GDP rose 0.1% M/M, defying its -0.2% forecast, lifting the 3m/3m rate to 0.7% and annual growth above 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound, driven by professional services and IT. MUFG tracks 2026 average growth at 1.5%,…
Belgium's coalition failed to agree a three-year €10bn savings package, chiefly blocked by one party's opposition to raising standard VAT from 21% to 22%. The general policy statement was postponed; focus shifts to a 2027 budget with €4bn savings, ideally…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
Next week brings rate decisions in Hungary, Turkey and Kazakhstan plus Polish industrial output, labour market and retail sales data. ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to hold, a 100bp Turkish cut to 36%, and a 25bp cut to 16.00% in Kazakhstan on 23…
Czech industrial producer prices rose 3.7% YoY and 1.2% MoM in September, beating expectations, while agricultural prices fell 7.2% YoY but rose 3.2% MoM. ING expects industrial PPI growth to peak above 6% in January and agricultural PPI above 12% by…
Eurostat's final September estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m, above Natixis' 3.5% call but matching the flash. Energy surged 18.9% y/y and 4.0% m/m, contributing 1.7pp and overtaking services as the largest driver. Core held at…
Ahead of SAP's 21 October 2026 Q3 report, after a ~57% rally to EUR 201.55, the article illustrates two income strategies: a cash-secured 186 put (about EUR 3.87) and a covered 220 call (about EUR 3.71), both expiring 20 November 2026. Option prices imply a…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
Brent crude holds above USD 105/b even as prices drift about 0.6% lower to USD 105.33/b, with WTI down 0.7% at USD 97.30/b and on track for a near 6% weekly gain after Hurricane Isaias. EIA data show a 300k b/d US production drop, an 8.6m bbl fall in…
US producer prices rose 1.3% MoM in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, with PPI at 6.3% YoY; retail sales beat at 0.8%. Despite hot inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 15bps to around 5.04%, its largest single-day…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
A technology-led equity selloff drove a haven bid into Treasuries, pushing the 2-year yield down to about 4.7% and reversing the post-CPI rise, while the 10-year fell to roughly 5.05%. Lower US yields broadly relieved Asian currencies, but record foreign…