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OCBC argues China faces two structurally different external pressures ahead of the 24 September Trump-Xi meeting. The US track stays episodic and deal-driven, with a possible US$30bn reciprocal tariff cut and US LNG purchases under discussion before the 10…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
BOJ hiked rates 25bp to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, but markets read the meeting as dovish: no faster hike signal, two PM-aligned dissenters favouring a hold, no 50bp hike from Takata or Tamura, and Governor Ueda seeing low probability of back-to-back hikes. USD/JPY…
Westpac brings forward its call for the next RBA cash rate hike to September from November, seeing scope for internal Monetary Policy Board members to muster a majority. It flags no change to the pencilled-in start of eventual cuts in August 2027, but says…
The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote; three members preferred a 25bp hike to 4.00%. The MPC raised its near-term inflation outlook, expecting CPI around 3.75% in 4Q26 versus 3.2% in July, and slightly above 4% in early 2027, citing…
Brent fell for a third session toward USD 104/b and WTI near USD 101/b as Saudi Arabia restores its damaged East-West pipeline, targeting roughly half of capacity within days, while some tanker traffic continues through Hormuz. Gold held near USD 4,350/oz…
Eurostat's final estimate puts euro area headline HICP at 3.25% yoy in August, up from 2.94% in July, with core easing to 2.40% from 2.48%. Energy jumped to 14.28% yoy, contributing 1.30 pp, mainly liquid fuels at 1.04 pp, while services slowed to 3.03% yoy…
China's 15th Five-Year Plan treats AI simultaneously as a productivity driver, a technological sovereignty instrument and a military capability, coordinating policy across the entire stack. Beijing has closed much of the gap with the US while spending a…
The FOMC delivered a unanimous 25bp hike, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Policymakers cited resilient household spending, business investment and job growth, revising the median dot to 4.1% for end-2026 and end-2027, with PCE at 3.7% and core…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
Schroders keeps a pro-cyclical stance for September 2026, seeing low US recession risk and resilient earnings but rising, increasingly correlated risks. It stays positive on equities, commodities and government bonds, is tactically long the US 10-year, holds…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
Citi's commodities head Max Layton says the US-led blockade of Iran is driving Tehran to escalate across multiple fronts until the blockade breaks or a diplomatic solution emerges. Inventories near 95-100 days globally, well above 1970s levels, and a Q4…
ING expects China's 3Q26 GDP growth to stay near or below the low end of the target range, with risks tilted below its 4.5% YoY forecast and 4.6% call for 2026. August data showed retail sales up just 0.4% YoY and YTD fixed asset investment down 7.2% YoY,…
Brent settled at $105.68/bbl after the 7m b/d East-West pipeline shutdown, with prices supported until Saudi supply visibility improves. Middle distillate cracks stay near records above $80/bbl despite a Russia-Ukraine energy-infrastructure halt. TTF trades…
US equities fell as tech slid on AI safety comments, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and Nasdaq 0.6%. The US 10Y yield briefly breached 5% for the first time since October 2023, with markets pricing about a 90% probability of a 25bp Fed hike. Middle East tensions…
Credit spreads were calm and tightened last week even as the UST 1-10Y curve rose by 18-27bps w/w, suggesting the move was a rates shock rather than a credit shock. Asia USD IG OAS narrowed 1bp to 56bps, HY 11bps to 313bps. SGD credit total returns fell 0.18%…