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SMBC forecasts July headline retail sales to bounce 0.7% m/m and ex-autos 0.6%. Real retail sales sit 1.7% below their pre-Covid trend, dragged by a restrictive-rate housing market with elevated prices, weak affordability and low turnover that suppresses…
Canada's economy rebounded in Q2 2026 and the unemployment rate fell to a two-year low, but RBC expects full-year growth of only 1%, held back by re-escalated US tariffs and high energy prices from Middle East conflict. Cautious optimism rests on per-capita…
Scotiabank Economics reports that all higher-frequency Canadian core inflation measures exceed the 2% target, with traditional core CPI at 3.9% m/m SAAR in August 2026. Headline CPI was -0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y, in line with consensus. The output gap is…
Canadian headline CPI held at 3% y/y in August, with energy up 15.4% and gasoline 23% above year-ago levels. Food inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since late 2024, and grocery growth lagged overall inflation for the first time in over two years. Core…
Natixis expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate to a 4.0% upper bound at the September 2026 meeting, the first hike in three years and the first under Chair Warsh. August core CPI came in above expectations on one-off factors, cementing hike expectations. A…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
MUFG keeps a constructive ringgit view despite higher oil prices and rising subsidy costs. Malaysia's electronics trade surplus offsets the larger oil import bill, inflation near 1.8% and anchored expectations let Bank Negara hold at 2.75%, and returning…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
Canadian household net wealth accelerated in Q2 2026, rising 2.9% quarter-over-quarter — more than double Q1's pace — driven chiefly by an equity rally. The S&P/TSX Composite gained 6.4% in the quarter and U.S. equities returned 17% in Canadian dollar terms.…
ING's James Smith argues that markets are pricing a more aggressive hiking cycle than warranted, with investors expecting four more ECB hikes, a similar path from the Bank of England, and no rate cuts for at least four years. He identifies three conditions…
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
August US CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.29% m/m and 2.4% y/y. This data is sufficient to nudge the Fed into a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, though it does not signal a…
SMBC expects the FOMC to raise the fed funds target range by 25bp to 3.75–4.00% at next week's meeting, as firm data and persistent inflation convince Chair Warsh to reassert the Fed's price-stability commitment. Ten-year yields have backed up about 25bp…
Natixis estimates euro area R-star at 2.2%, marginally below the ECB deposit rate of 2.5%, implying a only modestly restrictive policy stance. The report argues that real interest rates and R-star share common global drivers - productivity, demographics, the…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
Natixis expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate unchanged at its 17 September 2026 meeting with a 6-to-3 voting split, as headline CPI rose to 2.9% on energy effects while core inflation held at 2.6% and private-sector regular pay growth cooled to 2.8%.…
Busier Canadian data releases in the coming week will be led by August’s inflation report on Monday, when we expect headline Consumer Price Index growth to hold at 3% year-over-year. Energy price growth is still elevated, but little changed from July.…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…