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Treasury's 2026 Intergenerational Report projects Australia's population rising from about 28 million to 39.3 million by 2065-66, with growth slowing to 0.9% a year from 1.4%. Deaths are expected to outnumber births by the 2060s. Real GDP growth averages 2%…
CBA's Household Spending Insights show Australian spending rose just 0.1% in August, with essentials outpacing discretionary items. Transport led at 2.0% monthly and 9.0% annually, driven by a 3.4% rise at petrol stations after the fuel excise cut ended and…
The US dollar has strengthened after the Fed began tightening, pushing the dollar index back above 100.00 for the first time since early August, with 101.80 as next resistance. The move is supported by a roughly 55bp rise in the 2-year Treasury yield since…
Cooling oil and signs of productive US-China talks on AI, trade and investment ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting lifted sentiment, with technology leading gains. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and the NASDAQ 2.3%. The US curve flattened, the 2-year unchanged and the…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
Westpac's review of Australia's 2026 Intergenerational Report flags AI as a potential productivity game-changer, but stresses gains depend on widespread adoption, and estimates are uncertain. Ageing lifts health, aged care and pension costs while shrinking…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
Saxo's quick take notes Brent at USD 102, down 1.8% for a fourth session, as Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high and Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline, though Houthi attacks on Saturday did not reverse the slide. US industrial…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
CBA now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its 28-29 September meeting, bringing the call forward from November. Higher oil prices (Brent from about US$80 to above US$100), stronger inflation and GDP…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
Fed hike pushes US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0%, with markets pricing ~33bp more tightening by end-2026 and ~85bp by end-2027. Aussie OIS implies a 4.76% cash rate by year-end. BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25%, yet the yen weakened on cautious Ueda guidance and two…
Westpac brings forward its call for the next RBA cash rate hike to September from November, seeing scope for internal Monetary Policy Board members to muster a majority. It flags no change to the pencilled-in start of eventual cuts in August 2027, but says…
The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote; three members preferred a 25bp hike to 4.00%. The MPC raised its near-term inflation outlook, expecting CPI around 3.75% in 4Q26 versus 3.2% in July, and slightly above 4% in early 2027, citing…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
CBA modelling finds a proposed domestic gas reservation scheme, with obligations from 1 January 2028, could delay higher East Coast gas prices by 12 to 18 months, but benefits would be far larger in Brisbane than Sydney and Melbourne because of pipeline…