East coast gas: Why prices could rise faster in Sydney and Melbourne
中文标题
东海岸天然气：为何悉尼和墨尔本的价格可能上涨更快
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
CBA modelling finds a proposed domestic gas reservation scheme, with obligations from 1 January 2028, could delay higher East Coast gas prices by 12 to 18 months, but benefits would be far larger in Brisbane than Sydney and Melbourne because of pipeline constraints. Adding north-to-south pipeline capacity could delay $18–20/GJ prices by two to five years. Prices have risen from about $3–4/GJ in 2014 to around $13–14/GJ.
- Institution
- Commonwealth Bank
- Published
- 09/17/2026
- Research topic
- Natural Gas
- Time horizon
- 2029
Key arguments
- Reservation could delay higher prices by roughly 12–18 months, but protections for existing export contracts may reduce its early impact.
- Pipeline constraints mean Sydney and Melbourne face more pressure than Brisbane, which is closer to Queensland's lower-cost gas.
- Extra north-to-south pipeline capacity (Bulloo Link) could delay $18–20/GJ prices by two to five years.
- New southern supply is hard to justify at $12–16/GJ versus $6–8/GJ for Queensland's Bowen and Surat basins.
Key numbers
- Current wholesale East Coast gas price
- ~$13–14/GJ
- Price circa 2014
- $3–4/GJ
- Reservation scheme obligation start
- 1 January 2028
- Delay from additional pipeline capacity
- 2–5 years for $18–20/GJ
- Potential new southern supply cost
- $12–16/GJ
Main risks
- Existing export contract protections could weaken the reservation scheme's early domestic supply effect.
- AEMO forecasts extreme peak-day gas shortfalls in southern Australia from 2029, with extra supply needed from 2030 in most scenarios.
- Higher-cost LNG imports and declining southern production could push Sydney and Melbourne prices to $18–20/GJ.
Corresponding source evidence
Under the proposed scheme, LNG exporters would be required, at most, to supply gas equivalent to 20% of their export volumes to the domestic market, although Dhar said protections for existing export contracts could reduce its effective impact in its earlier years.
CBA modelling suggests the policy could delay higher-cost gas flowing through to the East Coast market by around 12 to 18 months.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has forecast risks of extreme peak-day gas shortfalls in southern Australia from 2029, with additional supply needed in most scenarios from 2030.
· 2029
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · NATGAS
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commonwealth BankEast coast gas: Why prices could rise faster in Sydney and Melbourne | 09/17/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKThe Commodities Feed: Middle East conflict keeps oil well supported · THINK Economic and financial analysis | 10/13/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCommodity weekly Fuel tightness and gold demand support recovery | 10/09/2026 | Bearish | — | Not stated |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/07/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Commonwealth Bank on 09/17/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction