美联储回顾：加息符合预期，信息更偏鹰派

关键论点

• 声明删除了将通胀高企归因于供给冲击的措辞，暗示通胀由需求驱动，紧缩政策可发挥作用。
• 沃什认为金融条件并非特别具有限制性，利率可能需要超过4%。
• 尽管存在政治压力，市场仍判断美联储抗通胀可信度得到强化而非削弱。
• AI基础设施需求仍有支撑，但10年期收益率约5%提高了成长股的估值门槛。

对应原文证据

1. • The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, but the bigger message came from its stronger economic forecasts, higher rate path and Warsh’s press conference.
2. The Fed increasingly sees inflation as broad enough, and the economy as strong enough, to justify tighter policy.
3. • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh was arguably more hawkish than the projections, arguing that financial conditions are not particularly restrictive and suggesting there could be more tightening ahead.