加拿大通胀数据与企业调查将在加拿大央行决议前公布

关键论点

• 整体CPI同比预计连续第三个月维持在3%，受汽油和取暖油价格推动；食品通胀应继续放缓。
• 核心通胀可能从2.1%降至1.8%，除机票外能源传导有限；交通运输类别是关注重点。
• RBC的CPI扩散指数显示通胀面较窄——8月仅35%的篮子商品同比涨幅超过3%，一年前为54%——但工业生产者价格显示出令人担忧的扩散。
• 第三季度商业展望调查可能反映信心走弱和短期通胀预期上升，而中长期预期仍接近2%的目标。

对应原文证据

1. Canadian inflation data and the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey on Monday will be watched closely for signs on whether inflation pressures from persistently elevated energy prices are broadening and permeating across the economy.
2. These releases will serve as key inputs for the BoC’s next interest rate decision on Oct. 28, as policymakers are wary that high oil prices could spill beyond gasoline prices into non-energy components and/or feed into rising business and consumer inflation expectations.
3. Inflation risks, however, must be balanced against a gradually improving economy that remains soft.