宏观 · 每周经济监测观点

关键论点

• 除非海湾危机迅速解决，否则欧洲央行可能在12月加息。
• 欧元区保持韧性，但消费和信心依然脆弱，能源成本预计将推高通胀。
• 英国和日本正在放缓，但两地年底前仍可能加息。
• 伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力减弱，有助于能源市场部分再平衡；据报道9月有超过1300万桶/日通过美国海军封锁。

对应原文证据

1. The Euro area is showing resilience, but consumption and confidence remain fragile, and inflation is expected to rise due to energy costs.
2. This mechanism is reported to have boosted non-Iranian exports from the Gulf to 10 Mb/g as early as August; in September, monitoring sites reported over 13 Mb/g passing through the US naval blockade, of which over 10 Mb/g likely transited through the Strait.
3. The rise came from the services sector (53.0 from 51.6), led by Germany (52.9 European PMI surveys paint a surprisingly positive picture of the outlook for manufacturing output, despite rising energy costs Note: Eurozone—current and expected production—diffusion indices, manufacturing sector.