东海岸天然气：为何悉尼和墨尔本的价格可能上涨更快

关键论点

• 保留计划可能将价格上涨推迟约12至18个月，但对现有出口合同的保护可能削弱其早期效果。
• 管道限制意味着悉尼和墨尔本比靠近昆士兰低成本气源的布里斯班面临更大压力。
• 增加南北向管道输送能力（Bulloo Link）可将18至20澳元/吉焦的价格出现时间推迟2至5年。
• 南部新供应生产成本为每吉焦12至16澳元，而昆士兰Bowen和Surat盆地为6至8澳元，因此南部供应经济性更难成立。

对应原文证据

1. Under the proposed scheme, LNG exporters would be required, at most, to supply gas equivalent to 20% of their export volumes to the domestic market, although Dhar said protections for existing export contracts could reduce its effective impact in its earlier years.
2. CBA modelling suggests the policy could delay higher-cost gas flowing through to the East Coast market by around 12 to 18 months.
3. The Australian Energy Market Operator has forecast risks of extreme peak-day gas shortfalls in southern Australia from 2029, with additional supply needed in most scenarios from 2030. · 2029