Tlines 全球机构情报
EN

中东每日简报

多经济体
可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

12月交割的布伦特原油交投于约101.60美元/桶,上涨约1%;WTI回升至90美元/桶上方,上涨约0.8%,因也门战事及曼德海峡局势抵消了海湾流量恢复的影响。API报告美国商业原油库存减少210万桶。欧洲天然气上涨1.2%至76.60欧元/兆瓦时,储气率为产能的73%。能源价格上涨推高美债收益率,金价在4140美元/金衡盎司附近徘徊。

机构
三菱日联金融集团
发布时间
2026/10/07
研究主题
Gold · Fed Policy · Crude Oil (WTI)
时间范围
this week · 2027 · 2026 · 2030

关键论点

  • 油价上涨,因也门战事及曼德海峡控制权的不确定性抵消了海湾流量恢复的影响;美国副总统JD·万斯称,只有伊朗放弃核浓缩计划,美国才会结束对伊战争。
  • 欧洲天然气延续涨势,截至10月5日储气率为产能的73%,远低于同期季节性常态。
  • 能源价格上涨推高美债收益率,金价缺乏方向;9月FOMC会议纪要和通胀预期是下一个催化剂。
  • 世界银行预计,若地区紧张局势企稳、霍尔木兹海峡航运和石油生产正常化,2027年海合会经济体平均反弹8.6%。

关键数字

12月交割布伦特原油
101.60美元/桶,上涨约1%
WTI
90美元/桶上方,上涨约0.8%
布伦特近月价差
约3美元/桶(隔夜一周低点2.38美元/桶)
美国商业原油库存变动(API)
减少210万桶
欧洲天然气
76.60欧元/兆瓦时,上涨1.2%;储气率为产能的73%

主要风险

  • 若曼德海峡得到控制、海湾流量正常化且美国原油库存下降被证明是暂时的,布伦特原油可能回落。
  • 若油价上涨重燃通胀担忧且9月FOMC会议纪要显示美联储更偏鹰派,金价可能进一步下跌。
  • 海合会2027年增长反弹取决于地区紧张局势企稳、霍尔木兹海峡航运正常化及卡塔尔LNG产能恢复;其中任何一项未能实现都可能推迟复苏。

对应原文证据

  1. Gold edges lower as higher oil revives inflation concerns.
  2. Minutes of the September FOMC will be released tonight and will be the next major catalyst for gold ahead of inflation expectations out later this week. · this week
  3. The September minutes will give some colour on how the Fed is interpreting the inflation outlook for the US economy with market pricing in slightly more than one hike by the end of the year.

上下文:结论为 Tlines 自动提取,并非机构原话;带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗
研报原件

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

Page 1

1 07 10月 2026

中东每日简报

07 10月 2026

大宗商品 / 能源

霍尔木兹海峡袭击事件抵消海湾地区流量恢复,油价上涨。油价正在上涨,此前隔夜交易时段走势震荡,早盘跌幅在当日交易过程中被抹平。12月交割的布伦特原油交易价格接近101.60美元/桶,上涨约1%,而WTI已回升至90美元/桶上方,上涨约0.8%。布伦特原油近月价差维持在3美元/桶左右,高于隔夜2.38美元/桶的一周低点。市场正在关注也门持续的战斗,以及沙特支持的政府军是否已能够确保对曼德海峡的控制,同时美国副总统JD·万斯表示,美国只有在伊朗放弃其核浓缩计划的情况下才会结束与伊朗的战争。在美国,API报告上周商业原油库存减少2.1百万桶,官方EIA数据将于今日晚些时候公布。欧洲天然气期货也在走高,上涨1.2%至76.60欧元/兆瓦时,延续隔夜涨幅。截至5 10月73%日,欧洲天然气库存为产能的73%,远低于每年这一时段的季节性常态。

油价上涨重燃通胀担忧,金价小幅走低。金价继续缺乏明确方向,涨跌均无太大信心。现货黄金交易价格约为4,140美元/金衡盎司,当日小幅下跌,因能源价格上涨推高美国国债收益率。9月FOMC会议纪要将于今晚公布,这将是本周晚些时候通胀预期发布前黄金的下一个主要催化剂。9月会议纪要将提供一些线索,说明美联储如何解读美国经济的通胀前景,市场目前定价年底前略多于一次加息。

伊拉克石油出口在中断后反弹

来源:彭博社、三菱日联研究 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Jan-23Mar-23May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26

伊拉克石油出口('000 b/d)布伦特原油价格(美元/桶,右侧)

中东每日简报

EDWARD BELL 研究主管 DIFC分行 – 迪拜 电话:+971 (4)387 50 33

邮箱:edward.bell@ae.mufg.jp

SOOJIN KIM 分析师 DIFC分行 – 迪拜 电话:+971 (4)387 5031 邮箱:soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp

三菱日联银行有限公司及三菱日联证券有限公司 三菱日联集团成员,全球金融集团

Page 2

2 07 October 2026 中东 – 信用交易

收盘评论 – 06 October 2026。一天之差,天壤之别。GCC债券从一开始就处于领先地位,最初是由于空头回补和ETF购买的混合作用。现券全天走高,利差随美国国债走势波动。然而,下午资金流向变得更加双向,尽管当日买家仍然超过卖家,但总体成交量依然低迷。主权债券表现优异,ADGB收盘收紧3/5bp,现券上涨高达0.75pt。QATAR在新发行之外也收紧3/5bp,36s今日受到挤压,收盘+0.75pt/-7bp,目前徘徊在10y+65bp的重新发行利差附近。在较高贝塔值方面,MOROC EUR曲线表现优异,买家主要集中在34s,收盘+0.875pt/-12bp。除此之外,准主权/金融机构和公司债的活动较为清淡,表现逊于主权债券,普遍收盘+0.25/0.5pt(-2/4bp)。(来源:Dominik Roth,信用交易员)

中东 – 宏观 / 市场

随着能源流动正常化,GCC经济将迎来强劲2027反弹。世界银行预计,假设地区紧张局势稳定,且通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油生产和航运正常化,GCC经济体将在2027,年平均反弹8.6%,此前今年出现大幅收缩。预计卡塔尔将以25%的增长领先复苏,因液化天然气产能恢复,其次是科威特20.5%,阿联酋8%,沙特阿拉伯6.1%。这一反弹将标志着这些经济体在2026预期的收缩(因冲突中断了碳氢化合物生产和出口)出现急剧逆转。与此同时,地区石油进口国相对免受直接能源出口冲击的影响,埃及的增长预计将从4.4%加速至5.1%,而摩洛哥预计也将保持较强势头。在多年愿景2030投资之后,沙特阿拉伯可能以更广泛的非石油经济基础进入复苏。2027反弹的规模和分布将在很大程度上取决于霍尔木兹航运的正常化、卡塔尔液化天然气产能的恢复以及该地区非石油增长的持久性。

伊拉克批准2.7亿美元融资计划以支持经济。伊拉克内阁批准了一项2.7亿美元融资计划,旨在刺激经济活动并缓冲石油出口中断对财政的影响。该措施补充了伊拉克近期为多元化资金来源和维持国内投资所做的努力,包括今年早些时候达成的管道和投资协议。伊拉克尤其容易受到地区航运中断的影响,其约93%的原油出口通常通过海湾航线运输,使政府收入容易受到霍尔木兹海峡周边不稳定的影响。该倡议也反映了更广泛的中东北非趋势,即政府利用财政支持和额外融资来减轻冲突的经济影响,同时沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔增加借贷,阿联酋进行逆周期投资。该计划的有效性将取决于拨付速度、目标行业以及其在碳氢化合物收入仍面临压力时支持非石油增长的能力。

日历 – 数据 / 事件 / 会议

国家 日期和时间 指标/事件 周期 共识 前值 市场 重要性*

IS 10/07/2026 外汇储备余额 9月 -- 241.6b !

EG 10/07/2026 净储备 9月 -- 57.2b !

来源:彭博社,三菱日联研究;* 彭博相关性评分介于“!”、“!!”和“!!!”之间

第 3 页

3 07 October 2026 E

MARKET INDICATORS

Stock markets Index Chg, % Sovereign bonds Yields, % G-S*, bp Chg, bp Coup, % Daily YTD Daily Daily YTD Regional Short-term bonds (1-2 years) MSCI GCC 733 0.60 -0.20 Bahrain 2028 8.646 382.85 0.00 3.43 7.000 Bahrain 1,902 -0.03 -7.97 Kuwait 2027 4.575 31.16 -0.02 0.58 3.500 Kuwait 10,078 1.10 15.99 Oman 2027 5.377 90.03 -0.07 1.02 6.750 Oman 7,788 0.75 32.75 Qatar 2028 5.087 43.27 0.01 1.26 4.500 Qatar 9,259 0.00 -13.97 KSA 2027 3.640 49.97 0.01 1.14 0.750 Saudi Arabia 10,590 1.05 0.95 UAE 2027 5.004 54.44 0.01 1.34 3.125 Dubai 5,907 -0.02 -2.31 Egypt 2027 6.559 211.02 -0.02 0.70 5.800 Abu Dhabi 9,993 -0.17 0.01 Turkey 2027 6.004 156.01 -0.01 1.14 8.600 Egypt 53,298 -0.48 27.42 Israel 2027 3.794 101.95 0.01 0.86 1.500 Israel 4,199 -0.59 15.62 Jordan 2027 5.109 92.25 -0.04 -0.33 5.750 Turkey 12,374 -0.56 9.88 Jordan 207 -0.09 13.14 Medium-term bonds (3-5 years) Bahrain 2030 8.764 378.16 -0.01 3.33 7.375 Oman 2030 5.750 76.22 0.00 1.60 4.875 International Qatar 2030 5.435 44.79 0.01 1.62 9.750 MSCI World 4,985 0.65 12.52 KSA 2030 5.619 65.43 0.01 1.40 4.750 MSCI EM 1,743 0.17 24.11 UAE 2030 5.439 46.07 0.02 1.60 3.125 CSI 300 4,358 0.29 -5.88 Egypt 2030 7.777 276.72 0.04 0.19 7.625 DAX 25,449 0.77 3.91 Turkey 2030 7.048 205.58 -0.01 1.15 9.125 DJIA 51,521 0.49 7.19 Israel 2030 5.760 76.98 0.00 1.25 2.750 EURO STOXX 50 6,272 0.48 8.30 Jordan 2030 6.516 152.54 0.01 0.67 5.850 FTSE 100 Index 10,542 0.42 6.15 Nikkei 225 70,239 -0.63 39.53 Long-term bonds (6+ years) S&P 500 7,819 0.58 14.22 Bahrain 2035 8.690 343.69 0.00 -0.15 7.750 Qatar 2035 5.744 49.70 0.00 -0.11 4.875 3m interbank rates % Chg, bp KSA 2035 5.869 67.19 0.00 -0.07 5.000 Daily YTD UAE 2034 5.673 46.29 0.01 -0.09 5.000 Bahrain 5.45 0.03 9.30 Turkey 2035 7.653 241.26 0.00 -0.08 6.500 Kuwait 3.63 0.00 1.75 Israel 2037 6.049 80.26 0.01 -0.07 5.625 UAE 4.32 0.52 24.35 Qatar 4.34 4.59 9.19 International bonds (10 years) Saudi Arabia 5.35 -4.48 10.18 US Treasury 5.312 --- 0.03 1.19 4.625 Turkey 16.01 0.00 0.00 German Bund 3.476 --- 0.00 0.77 3.000 SOFR 4.02 -0.32 10.03 UK Gilt 5.381 --- -0.04 0.66 4.875 Japan Government Bond 3.099 --- 0.01 1.42 3.100 Exchange rates Rate Chg, % Daily YTD Commodities USD Chg, % USD/BHD 1yr fwd 162.90 -0.06 -12.72 Daily YTD USD/KWD 1yr fwd -80.22 -8.01 58.86 Brent 101.55 0.96 68.63 USD/OMR 1yr fwd 7.51 -14.27 -49.93 WTI 90.14 0.78 58.36 USD/QAR 1yr fwd -10.89 7.40 -127.20 Gold 4,134 -0.73 -4.30 USD/SAR 1yr fwd 155.65 -2.72 -55.83 Copper 14,415 -0.03 16.03 USD/AED 1yr fwd -12.95 9.63 65.50 Aluminium 3,134 0.21 4.61 USD/EGP 1yr fwd 19.39 -0.05 -11.04 EU natural gas 4,134 -0.73 -4.30 USD/TRY 1yr fwd 38.67 -0.57 -7.10 US natural gas 76.72 1.36 179.14 USD/ILS 1yr fwd -649.79 -0.62 -362.81 Iron ore 91.10 -0.20 -15.01 Coal 264.00 0.38 24.56 Commodities (BCOM) 731.34 0.55 25.06 Energy (BCOMEN) 478.28 -0.11 54.60 Base metals (BCOMIN) 175.31 -0.13 7.30 Precious metals (BCOMPR) 1,291.38 0.68 -4.67 Agriculture (BCOMAG) 4,134 -0.73 -4.30

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG Research; * G-spread = interpolated bond spread to sovereign curve of matching currency

Page 4

4 07 October 2026 免责声明

三菱日联银行有限公司(“三菱日联银行”)是一家在日本注册的有限责任公司,在东京法务局注册(公司编号 0100-01- 008846)。三菱日联银行的总部位于日本东京千代田区丸之内1丁目4 -5号,邮编100-8388,。

三菱日联银行伦敦分行在英国公司注册处注册为英国机构(注册号 BR002013)。三菱日联银行受日本金融厅授权和监管。三菱日联银行伦敦分行受审慎监管局授权(FCA/PRA编号 139189),并受金融行为监管局监管和审慎监管局有限监管。有关三菱日联银行伦敦分行受审慎监管局监管范围的详细信息,可向我们索取。

三菱日联银行DIFC分行受迪拜金融服务管理局(DFSA)监管(许可证号:F000470),其注册地址为阿联酋迪拜迪拜国际金融中心Gate,东翼3,层,邮政信箱506614,。

机构免责声明
This Presentation has been prepared by MUFG Bank. This Presentation is intended for distribution to a “professional client” or “eligible counterparty” or Market counterparty" or "Business Customer" but it is not intended for a “retail client” within the me aning of the DFSA or QFCRA rules and should not be distributed to retail clients. This Presentation has been prepared for information purposes only, should not be construed as investment research and for the avoidance of doubt, nothing express or implied in this Presentation constitutes any commitment by MUFG Bank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates to arrange and/or provide any party with any services, facility and/or financing. This Presentation does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, investment advice or a personal recommendation and should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement. MUFG Bank retains copyright to this Presentation, and no part of this Presentation may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written permission of MUFG Bank. MUFG Bank and its subsidiaries and affiliates accept no liability whatsoever to any third parties resulting from any unauthorised distribution. MUFG Bank and its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors and employees accept no liability whatsoever for any reliance on the information contained in the Presentation. This Presentation is based on information from sources deemed by MUFG Bank to be correct and reliable but have not been independently verified. MUFG Bank does not make any guarantee, representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, reliability, completeness, adequacy or appropriateness of any information or comments contained in this presentation. The views contained in this Presentation (including any statements and forecasts) are solely those of MUFG Bank and are subject to change without notice. This presentation is not intended to forecast or predict future events. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. MUFG Bank is under no obligation to correct any inaccuracies in the Presentation or update the information contained therein. The provision of the service described in this Presentation is or will be subject to an agreement constituting terms of busin ess (“the Agreement”). In the event of a conflict between information in this Presentation and the Agreement, the latter shall prevail. Details on how MUFG Bank process personal data relating to individuals associated with our clients and vendors are available on the following website at: MUFG EMEA Privacy Notices | MUFG EMEA This Presentation and all claims arising in connection with it are governed by, and to be construed in accordance with English law. CERTIFICATION The author(s) mentioned on the cover of this report hereby certify(ies) (or, where multiple authors are responsible, individually certify with respect to each security that the author covers in this report) that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject company(ies) and its (their) securities, and also certify(ies) that they have not been, are not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing any specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. This report has been prepared by the Global Markets Research, US Rates and Credit Strategy desks within MUFG Bank, Ltd. (“MUBK”), MUFG Securities EMEA plc (“MUSE”) and MUFG Securities Americas Inc (“MUSA”) and may be distributed to you either by MUBK, MUSE or MUSA or by another subsidiary of the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (“MUFG”). LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES The securities related businesses within MUFG (together referred to in this material as “MUFG Securities”) are: (1) MUFG Securities EMEA plc (“MUSE”), a limited liability company, registered in England (No:1698498) with its registered of fice at Ropemaker Place, 25 Ropemaker Street, London, EC2Y 9AJ. MUSE is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulati on Authority (“PRA”) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the PRA (FS Registration Number 124512). In the USA, MUSE is a registered Swap Dealer (“SD”) with the Commodity F utures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). MUSE is also a registered Security -Based Swap Dealer (“SBSD”) with the Securities Exchange Commission (“SEC”). MUSE has a branch office (“MUSE Dubai Branch”) that is registered at Level 3, East Wing, The Gate, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 506894, Dubai, UAE. MUSE Dubai Branch is authorised to operate in the Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) as a Non-DIFC Entity (Commercial License Number CL1656) and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (Reference Number F002623); (2) MUFG Securities (Europe) N.V. (“MUS(EU)), a public limited company, registered in the Netherlands (chamber of commerce nu mber 71213376) with its registered office at World Trade Center, Tower Two, level 5, Strawinskylaan 1887, 1077 XX Amsterdam. MUS(EU) is authorized by the European Central Bank and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank (“DNB”) and also regulated by the Authoriteit Financiële Markten (“AFM”). MUS(EU) has a branch offic e (MUSE(EU) Paris Branch) registered in France (chamber of commerce number 844285999) with its registered office at 18 rue du Quatre-Septembre, 75002 Paris. MUS(EU) Paris Branch is regulated in France by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution ("ACPR") and the Autorité des marchés financiers ("AMF"); (3) MUFG Securities Americas Inc. (“MUSA”) which is registered in the United States with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) (SEC# 8 -43026; CRD# 19685); (4) MUFG Securities (Canada), Ltd. (“MUS(CAN)”) is an investment dealer registered in Canada with the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) and in each province and territory of Canada, a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (“CIRO”) ( NRD# 54270), and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (“CIPF”). Customers’ accounts are protected by CIPF within the specified limits; (5) MUFG Securities Asia Limited (“MUS(ASIA)”) which is incorporated in Hong Kong, licensed under the Hong Kong Securities an d Futures Ordinance and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (Central Entity Number AAA889). MUS(ASIA) is registered as a foreign company under the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia (ARBN 169 329 453); and (6) MUFG Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch (“MUS(ASIA Singapore)”) has a capital markets services licence under the S ecurities and Futures Act in Singapore. (7) MUFG Securities (India) Private Limited (“MUS(INDIA)”) is a registered intermediary under the Securities and Exchange Boa rd of India (Merchant Bankers) Regulations, 1992 having registration number INM000013305.

AI 分析

由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文

多机构观点对比 · XAUUSD

机构 / 研报发布日期方向原文已核目标价时间范围
三菱日联金融集团中东每日简报2026/10/07看空—未明确
盛宝银行商品周报:黄金企稳,石油供应紧张与增长担忧令市场分化2026/10/16看多—未明确
华侨银行研究每日国债展望 · 要闻2026/10/16看多—未明确
加拿大丰业银行经济研究全球经济学 · 每日要点2026/10/16中性—未明确

本页如何生成

本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 MUFG 于 2026/10/07 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正