UBS CIO retains a positive view on AI-driven tech despite recent volatility, citing robust AI demand, accelerating monetization, and attractive valuations, while recommending selective diversified exposure.
ING argues that lower energy prices support risk assets and a benign dollar decline, validated by a drop in longer-dated Treasury yields. The report highlights key events (US PCE, Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole) and maintains bullish stances on EUR/USD and…
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to deliver three more rate cuts this year, bringing the base rate to 4.75% by end-2026 and a terminal rate of 4.00% by end-2028, conditional on stable risk premium. Inflation is seen staying below target for the rest…
ING expects the Canadian dollar to underperform most G10 currencies in the coming months due to escalating US-Canada trade tensions and dovish Bank of Canada repricing. While USD/CAD has near-term upside to the 1.3920-1.3950 area, a bearish USD view due to…
ING Research assesses the US Treasury's long-end buyback program and its impact on the 10-year Treasury yield. The report sees the buyback as a tactical curb, not a game-changer, with underlying pressures from issuance and productivity-driven corporates…
Pictet highlights a multi-year electrification megatrend driven by industrial reshoring, AI data centres, and grid modernisation, favouring US utilities, European grid/diversified power names, and copper, while viewing lithium as more cyclical. The report…
SEB's Nordic Outlook for autumn 2026 sees a resilient global economy despite Middle East conflicts, with US growth above 2%, record Chinese exports, and a euro-area upgrade, but flags risks from energy uncertainty, low European gas inventories, drought-driven…
Franklin Templeton's report 'Investing in the Foundations of Tomorrow’s Economy' argues that the global investment paradigm is shifting from efficiency to resilience, driven by geopolitical fragmentation, domestic political pressure, climate change, AI and…
The dollar starts the week firm, supported by the bond market, but faces downside risks from escalating US-Canada trade tensions and potential US-China trade conflict. EUR/USD is likely to stabilize rather than rally above 1.170, with fair value just below…
The report explains the importance of productivity for living standards, noting Australia's productivity slowdown, measurement challenges in services, and policy levers such as investment, technology, and skills. It highlights CBA economists' views on…
Citi's report 'Fueling Resilience' analyzes how the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption reshaped energy supply chains, driving oil prices above $100/barrel. It highlights three pillars of trade finance—preserving liquidity, securing inventory,…
SMBC Nikko analyzes the feasibility of the US Treasury increasing its buyback capacity by using surplus cash without issuing more bills. It estimates the Treasury could shift $100bn from its Fed account to term debt buybacks, potentially concentrating them…
SMBC Nikko highlights that US real disposable incomes have slowed sharply to 0.5% y/y in June 2026 from a peak of 7.2% in June 2023, yet consumption remains above pre-Covid trends, enabled by a record-low savings rate of 2.7%. The report warns that this…
HSBC's report argues that commercial real estate (CRE) expansion is increasingly driven by economic stability rather than pure growth, with 50% of businesses planning overseas expansion in the next two years, 49% of which cite tariff changes as an…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook highlights mixed global markets amid US sanctions on Iran and new tariffs, with tech-led equity declines and a stronger dollar. Gold rallies above $4,680/oz, while Brent settles near $92/bbl. The PBOC's liquidity operations…
Oil prices eased despite US plans to tighten Iran sanctions, with traders viewing the impact as marginal. European gas prices surged on fragile storage levels ahead of winter. Copper gained on renewed inventory tightness and US-bound flows. Corn rallied on…
The US Treasury long-end buyback program is tightening swap spreads and lowering long-end yields, though the market remains cautious. The Fed is unlikely to hike, and geopolitical risks persist despite low volatility. The ECB may hike once more, with oil…
MUFG's US Economic Brief concludes that the US labor market is closer to balance than headline payroll data suggest, and inflation continues to moderate, supporting a patient Federal Reserve. They expect policy rates to remain unchanged through the remainder…
UBS CIO advises diversifying beyond the US dollar as de-dollarization trends persist, recommending gold, broad commodities, and select currencies to hedge against dollar weakness and support portfolio returns.
Barclays reports UK public M&A activity has surged to levels not seen since 2018, driven by both corporate and private equity buyers targeting high-quality UK-listed businesses. Inbound M&A has doubled year-on-year to $77bn, with increased unsolicited…