Natixis remains neutral on the long end of the UST curve, citing elevated uncertainty from the Treasury buyback program, while maintaining a bullish view on the belly (5-year) and swap spread flatteners. US inflation data was marginally hot but not…
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Westpac expects Australian GDP to rise 0.2% q/q and 1.7% y/y in Q2 2026, with domestic demand above trend but net exports dragging due to high import content. Productivity is seen falling 0.2% q/q, partly due to a temporary energy supply shock and investment…
Westpac IQ's report 'Short duration nation' argues that Australia's financial system is structurally biased toward short-duration assets and floating-rate mortgages, unlike the US's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage model. This is due to tax incentives, APRA's…
Westpac's new Economic Overview presents a more optimistic view of the New Zealand economy, with strengthening growth expected. The report highlights key themes of improving economic conditions and a positive outlook, though specific forecasts and data are…
Scotiabank Economics published its Forecast Snapshot on August 28, 2026, providing updated forecasts for real GDP, policy rates, foreign exchange rates, and commodities. The forecasts cover Latin America (as of August 28, 2026) and other regions (as of July…
Franklin Templeton's Fixed Income Research argues that US Treasury buybacks of long-term debt are ineffective without fiscal deficit reduction, and that the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has turned hawkish, prioritizing inflation control over supporting fiscal…
RBC Economics expects the August employment report to show 16K jobs added with unemployment holding at 4.1%, viewing the payroll slowdown as a supply-side story rather than labor market weakness. They highlight retirements and low immigration as key drivers…
State Street's SPDR Gold Strategy Team discusses how Asian asset owners, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, and central banks, are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic asset rather than just a tactical hedge. This shift is driven…
OCBC Research's daily credit snapshot highlights a strong US equity rally led by technology shares, with Nvidia results boosting AI sentiment. Oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran, and US jobless claims fell. Credit spreads tightened across US…
Oil prices rose as US-Iran talks stalled, while Hormuz flows show tentative recovery. OPEC faces potential Venezuela exit. European gas prices jumped on fading talks hopes amid tight storage. Zinc remains supported by tight fundamentals despite easing from…
RBC Economics expects Canada's trade surplus to widen in July due to tariff front-loading, a smaller job gain in August, and the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in September. Risks from further tariff escalation and high oil prices persist, but the…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly for August 28, 2026, discusses tariff revenue replacement, the impact of tariffs on inflation, September seasonals for Treasuries, and economic forecasts. The report expects tariff effects on inflation to ebb by year-end,…
SMBC's Joseph Abate analyzes Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, highlighting his criticism of forward guidance and preference for 'key principles' in a data-dependent policy framework. Warsh's approach emphasizes trends over isolated data, price stability…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily discusses Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance, indicating insufficient inflation progress and a potential September rate hike despite recent cooler inflation readings.
Westpac does not view the strong July CPI print as sufficient evidence to fully price in an RBA rate hike, maintaining that a November hike is plausible but not the base case.
PIMCO analyzes Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, interpreting his comments as signaling a potential rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Warsh emphasized the need for clear progress on underlying inflation, expressed skepticism about recent…
ING Think expects a quiet FX session with focus on Fed Chair Warsh's speech and long-end Treasury performance. They foresee limited dollar movement, with potential gains if hawkish signals emerge. EUR/USD likely rangebound supported by ECB tightening…
ING's Asia week ahead focuses on GDP releases from India and Australia, China's PMIs, Philippines inflation, Japan's retail sales and industrial production, and Korea's trade and inflation. India's GDP growth is expected to ease to 7.5% YoY but remain robust;…
ING Think reports that the French economy narrowly avoided recession in H1 2026, with downward revisions to GDP showing stagnation in Q2 and contraction in Q1. Weak growth makes the government's fiscal targets unattainable, requiring additional consolidation.…