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By industry it favours fertilisers, biotechnology and oil exploration, while turning most negative on mortgage lenders, semiconductor equipment makers and chip firms.

History shows that this specific brand of complacency can be the seedbed for major disruption once sentiment eventually turns.

the energy-driven acceleration in inflation increases the risk of a consumption disappointment

All in all, after today’s data releases, we confirm our base case call for both average GDP growth at 0.9% and average inflation at 2.7% in 2026.

Our latest economic growth forecast for 2026 projects a 1.7% increase.

However, the nearly four-year-long stagnation in capital stock and the deteriorating demographic situation make it increasingly unlikely that the Hungarian economy will be able to sustain growth above 3% without suffering a significant loss of internal and/or external balance in the long run.

Export growth may be constrained by geopolitical uncertainties, rising production costs and potential supply disruptions, the signs of which are not yet evident in the second-quarter statistics.

Net exports alone slowed the economy’s year-on-year performance by 4.5ppts, a figure offset by a 6.2ppt contribution from domestic demand.

Yesterday’s new proposal and our nominal GDP outlook imply that the government deficit would reach 3.5% of GDP next year, after adjusting for the estimated surplus of municipalities.

the August ISM manufacturing index is a touch softer than expected at 54.6 in August, down from 55.6 (consensus 55.2).

Escalation in the trade war with the U.S. or conflict in the Middle East could further undermine confidence.

Kazinnik and Sinclair find that public pressure moves Committee voting 10% closer to the administration’s view.

The AI sim results suggest that if the Chair’s proposal is too far outside the consensus, the other FOMC members will ignore it .

Creating a simWarsh is complicated because he provides little information about his reaction function and his commentary is terse.

Labor market signals have been mixed, while weak hiring and declining labor participation rate indicate no reacceleration.

Core PCE rose after the Iran War but has shown signs of slowing…

Gold 4455 -3.1%

Silver 66.38 -4.1%

The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length. In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.

gold retreated as markets priced in further central bank rate hikes.

Brent was up over 2% at around USD89.4 per barrel.

Our base case is that disruptions to global energy supply should remain limited as the US, Iran, and mediators continue to work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

We also think exposure to gold and broad commodities can provide additional diversification.

For the month, the BCOM is up 6.4%, supported by double-digit gains across precious metals, softs and grains

Direct loans grew by around 8.7% y/y in July, above the 8.3% y/y recorded in June, extending the uptrend observed since October 2021.

medium business loans posted a stronger performance than in the previous month, accelerating from 11.7% y/y to 13.1% y/y.

the micro business loans portfolio remained in negative territory, although it continued to recover, improving from -10.6% y/y in June to -10.0% y/y in July.

with the exception of corporate loans, whose growth eased from 5.9% y/y in June to 5.1% y/y in July.

Mortgages remained stable, growing at around 7.7% annually and recording flows broadly in line with the annual average.

REIT credit spreads remain relatively contained despite elevated Treasury yields, suggesting investors view balance sheet risk as manageable and refinancing concerns as more limited.

US High Yield spreads tightened by 3bps to 260bps respectively.

Asia USD High Yield spreads tightened by 12bps to 316bps.

US high-yield bond yield spreads to US Treasuries have narrowed to their tightest levels in well over a month, with the Bloomberg measure we track of the spread at 263 basis points

Market Watch : Asian markets are likely to open today on a slightly cautious tone, awaiting China's non-manufacturing and composite PMIs.

In our view, however, the fiscal plans should provide some reassurance to financial markets.

Markets were relieved that he sounded more hawkish and reiterated the Fed’s 2% PCE goal for price stability.

We estimate that current face-value weighted coupons for bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028 could double from current levels, if these issuers refinanced their maturing bonds at today’s index yields

IG issuers with bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028 tend to face larger average marginal coupon increases than their BB rated peers.

The clear takeaway is that the index-level difference is negligible.

US personal spending rose 0.2% MoM, but adjusted for inflation it remained flat. Spending has been concentrated in essential and asset-price-linked services rather than discretionary demand.

Consumer spending declined following the Iran war, while wage bill growth remained resilient but slowed.

Meanwhile, the market expects retail sales growth to accelerate to 3.1% YoY, from a revised 0.6% in June.

Because China's services sector is primarily domestically focused, this suggests domestic demand remained relatively sluggish in August.

Final domestic demand overall (spending by Canadian businesses, consumers, and governments) rose 3.9% annualized after edging lower (-0.1%) in Q2.

It is not the Board’s job to run the company, that’s management’s responsibility. The Board’s role is to protect the interests of the company, take a long-term view and provide effective oversight.

This includes supporting management, asking the right questions and constructively challenging decisions where appropriate.

CommBank estimates around $22 billion of transport and enabling infrastructure has been or is being delivered to support the airport.

Though Italy has been one of the largest recipients of funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which have provided it with access to €194.4 billion in grants and loans,1 the program’s conclusion this year further emphasises the need for access to private capital to meet future investment requirements.

These developments have once again reduced the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, with an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the Strait, the upside risk is for now being capped.

A potential resolution of the Gulf conflict could ease current downside pressures on the economic outlook and provide some support to growth prospects, while any further escalation would add to downside risks.