House View Briefcase
UBS CIO expects the Fed to keep rates on hold despite hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, favoring short- to medium-duration quality bonds.
Multiple economies
Topic
Labor market
7 institutions have written about this across 8 indexed reports, producing 11 extracted views. The claims below are quoted from those reports; each links to the report it came from and to the asset it concerns.
What institutions are saying
SMBCbearish
Local government education payrolls will decline by an additional 87k jobs due to ESSER funding expiration.SMBCbearish
State and local government staffing outside education will see -127k job cuts from SLFRF fund expiration.Scotiabank Economicsbearish
Fed Chair Warsh's dismissal of labor market weakness is mistaken; job and income growth are weak.RBC Economicsbullish
The unemployment rate in Canada fell to 6.4% in July, its lowest in two years, supporting consumer fundamentals.RBC Economicsbullish
The unemployment rate in Canada declined to 6.4% in July but remains higher than historical norms, suggesting room for hiring to recover.RBC Economicsbullish
RBC remains cautiously optimistic that per-worker labour markets in Canada will continue to gradually improve, with the unemployment rate edging lower into 2027.Assets in this coverage
Institutions writing on this
Reports behind this topic
No rate-hiking map from the Federal Reserve ·
Invesco's Global Head of Research, Benjamin Jones, analyzes the Federal Reserve's stance after Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, expecting the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of the year. He anticipates reduced forward guidance to widen outcome…
July trade, August jobs and September BoC meeting in focus for Canada
RBC Economics expects Canada's trade surplus to widen in July due to tariff front-loading, a smaller job gain in August, and the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in September. Risks from further tariff escalation and high oil prices persist, but the…
The Global Week Ahead: Horse Blinders
Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% this week but sees hikes starting in December, with two more next year, citing stronger growth and inflation risks. The US August nonfarm payrolls are forecast at +30k, and the report…
082726 Pandemic Funding Cliffs Hitting Government Jobs
SMBC Nikko highlights that the expiration of pandemic-era stimulus funding (ESSER and SLFRF) will reduce public sector employment over the next year, with an estimated 214k total job losses, and provides forecasts for August NFP, private NFP, and unemployment.
The Key Inflation Signal for Investors
PIMCO argues the Fed should measure underlying inflation via unit labor costs rather than price-only measures. Current data show unit cost inflation at 2% (4-year average) and 1.5% (past year), suggesting underlying inflation is near target. The labor market…
Q2 Canadian consumer signals: Spending on fuel overshadowed purchases by sports fans
RBC Economics reports that Canadian consumer spending remained resilient in Q2 2026, driven by savings drawdowns and higher debt, despite weak real wage gains and elevated energy costs. Core retail sales excluding gas stations rose 2.4% Q/Q, with…
Flash Macro: U.S. Jobs Report July 2026
KKR's July 2026 payroll analysis suggests a market-friendly report that reduces urgency for a September Fed hike. Despite weak jobs data, the firm sees the economy on firmer footing than indicated, driven by productivity, capex, and strong earnings. KKR…