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Brent retreated toward USD 107/b and WTI traded near USD 104/b after a supply-driven rally looked technically stretched, with API data showing US crude inventories up 7.1mb plus gasoline and distillate builds. Supply risks persist: Saudi Arabia's East-West…
Markets brace for an almost certain 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% after hot core CPI. The 10-year Treasury briefly breached 5%, a 2007 high, before easing; the 2-year hit 4.686%. Equities fell as oil and yields rose. Brent settled near $109, up ~20% in…
MUFG revises its BoJ policy rate scenario and now expects the next hike at the September 17-18 MPM to 1.25%, followed by 1.50% in January 2027 and a terminal rate of 1.75% in June 2027. The revision reflects Governor Ueda's pledge to hold a thorough…
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, the shortest interval this cycle, pressured by coordinated US-Japan yen intervention, Washington's call for higher rates and a hawkish Board tilt. With wages and producer…
In August 2026, EM debt proved resilient. Hard currency sovereigns returned +0.89% (JP Morgan EMBI GD), led by spread tightening of 10bps to ~235bps, as Treasury yields steadied at 4.75% on the 10-year. Local currency debt returned +0.90% (GBI-EM GD), driven…
Emerging market hard currency bonds outperformed in August 2026, with shorter-maturity bonds leading year-to-date as higher US Treasury term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks under pressure long duration. The 10-year US Treasury ended at 4.75%,…
Short-dated EM hard currency bonds outperformed longer-dated paper over the first eight months of 2026, as rising US 10-year Treasury yields, higher term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks tested duration. EM hard currency spreads stayed firm,…
AI-slowdown warnings hit semiconductors and lifted volatility, while markets priced a 92% chance of a 25bp Fed hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The US 10-year yield cleared 5.02% for its highest since 2007. Brent stayed below $110 for a fourth day on Middle East supply…
The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% on 14 September, the first time since October 2023, driven by higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and heavy US government borrowing. Saxo Bank argues…
Man Group argues the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5% signals sovereign paper shifting from risk-free anchor to portfolio risk, driven by sticky inflation, heavy debt loads and weak fiscal credibility. Treasury Secretary Bessent's $6bn buyback of 10- to…
Since the Takaichi Cabinet formed, JGB yields rose led by the 10-year sector on BoJ-behind-the-curve fears, with the 2s10s spread widening. That trend has recently reversed after coordinated US-Japan yen-buying intervention in late July and remarks by US…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
MUFG keeps a constructive ringgit view despite higher oil prices and rising subsidy costs. Malaysia's electronics trade surplus offsets the larger oil import bill, inflation near 1.8% and anchored expectations let Bank Negara hold at 2.75%, and returning…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure after drone attacks halts a 5 mb/d export route, putting about 4% of global supply at risk and pushing Brent above $107. Equities fell as AI names unwound and the Fed is expected to hike 25bp on Wednesday. Gold eased…
Oil pulled back Friday on reports of planned but postponed Iran-Gulf talks, though Brent still rose 8.7% on the week and WTI settled at $100/bbl. US August CPI accelerated to 0.4% m/m with the annual rate at 3.4%; core was 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y. Futures now…
ING expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25bp rate hike on 16 September, framing it as a recalibration of policy rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. August payrolls beat all Bloomberg forecasts, headline CPI sits at 3.4% and core CPI ran at…
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
Global bond yields surged on September 10, 2026, after the ECB delivered a hawkish 25-bp hike and raised its 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts, sending the German 2-year yield up 16 bp—its largest front-end jump in over 18 months—while crude oil prices spiked…