House View Briefcase
UBS CIO expects the Fed to keep rates on hold despite hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, favoring short- to medium-duration quality bonds.
Multiple economies
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912 matching institutional reports
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House View Daily
UBS CIO expects limited near-term oil market impact from the US-Venezuela deal despite its strategic significance, maintains Brent at USD 85/bbl for Dec 2026 with upside risks, favors broad commodities, keeps Neutral on US energy equities, sees Fed rate hike…
Asia FX Talk · Jackson Hole revives high-for-longer Fed risks for regional FX
MUFG's Asia FX Talk discusses the hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations following Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which has strengthened the US dollar and poses headwinds for Asian currencies, particularly THB and IDR, while SGD and MYR appear more…
Short duration nation
Westpac IQ's report 'Short duration nation' argues that Australia's financial system is structurally biased toward short-duration assets and floating-rate mortgages, unlike the US's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage model. This is due to tax incentives, APRA's…
Multiple economies
On My Mind: Rearranging the Debt Chairs
Franklin Templeton's Fixed Income Research argues that US Treasury buybacks of long-term debt are ineffective without fiscal deficit reduction, and that the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has turned hawkish, prioritizing inflation control over supporting fiscal…
Labor market tightness to persist despite payroll slowdown
RBC Economics expects the August employment report to show 16K jobs added with unemployment holding at 4.1%, viewing the payroll slowdown as a supply-side story rather than labor market weakness. They highlight retirements and low immigration as key drivers…
Market Quick Take - Tech earnings lift a narrow market as Warsh takes the Jackson Hole stage
Saxo Bank's Market Quick Take highlights Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Warsh's speech as the key event, with markets positioning for a hawkish tone. Equities show a narrow tech-led rally in the US, while Europe falls on French political risk. Bitcoin holds near…
Multiple economies
Jackson Hole Recap: Grounded but not predictable
Natixis reviews Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, which delivered a hawkish message without explicit forward guidance. The firm expects September's rate decision to hinge on August CPI data and leans toward another hold if inflation cools, despite…
Waiting on Warsh…
Natixis remains neutral on the long end of the UST curve, citing elevated uncertainty from the Treasury buyback program, while maintaining a bullish view on the belly (5-year) and swap spread flatteners. US inflation data was marginally hot but not…
Multiple economies
US Rates Weekly 20260828
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly for August 28, 2026, discusses tariff revenue replacement, the impact of tariffs on inflation, September seasonals for Treasuries, and economic forecasts. The report expects tariff effects on inflation to ebb by year-end,…
US Rates Strategy · Key principles rather than forward guidance
SMBC's Joseph Abate analyzes Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, highlighting his criticism of forward guidance and preference for 'key principles' in a data-dependent policy framework. Warsh's approach emphasizes trends over isolated data, price stability…
082826 Insufficient Inflation Progress
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily discusses Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance, indicating insufficient inflation progress and a potential September rate hike despite recent cooler inflation readings.
Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Emphasizes Price Stability
PIMCO analyzes Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, interpreting his comments as signaling a potential rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Warsh emphasized the need for clear progress on underlying inflation, expressed skepticism about recent…
French economy grinds to a halt
ING Think reports that the French economy narrowly avoided recession in H1 2026, with downward revisions to GDP showing stagnation in Q2 and contraction in Q1. Weak growth makes the government's fiscal targets unattainable, requiring additional consolidation.…
FX Daily: Keeping an eye on the long end
ING Think expects a quiet FX session with focus on Fed Chair Warsh's speech and long-end Treasury performance. They foresee limited dollar movement, with potential gains if hawkish signals emerge. EUR/USD likely rangebound supported by ECB tightening…
Multiple economies
THINK Ahead: Six months of the Iran War in six charts
ING Think's report assesses the Eurozone and UK economic outlook six months into the Iran War, arguing that inflation has remained contained and that markets have overpriced additional rate hikes. It expects the ECB to hike once in September but sees further…
Expectations are building for further USD weakness
Nomura expects further USD weakness due to subdued US inflation, FOMC rate hold, unwinding of long USD positions, and Treasury buybacks. Positive supports include foreign equity inflows and carry trades, but medium-term bearish view on USD remains.
Multiple economies
Canada's economy rebounded strongly in Q2 as domestic demand strengthened
RBC Economics reports that Canada's real GDP rebounded strongly in Q2 2026, rising 3.3% annualized, driven by domestic demand and net trade, but expects growth to moderate in the second half due to temporary factors and U.S. tariffs, while the Bank of Canada…
Multiple economiesFederal Reserve
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (28 Aug 2026)
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook highlights a tech-led rally in US equities boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, while oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran. Central bank speakers at Jackson Hole maintained a cautious inflation stance. BSP hiked rates…
Multiple economies
Daily: Markets look to Jackson Hole
UBS CIO expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026 and potentially cut in H1 2027, while elevated inflation and policy uncertainty from Chair Warsh keep long yields high. They recommend diversified portfolios with global equities, quality short-to-medium…