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FX options markets signalled renewed dollar strength after Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech, raising the probability of a September rate hike. However, dollar gains may be temporary if the Fed holds rates, and yen could recover if the BoJ hikes.
MUFG's Asia FX report warns that regional currencies face headwinds from rising US Treasury yields and higher oil prices, driven by a hawkish Fed repricing and geopolitical tensions. The report highlights increased odds of a September Fed rate hike, a surge…
MUFG notes the yen strengthened overnight as hawkish Bank of Japan comments, including from Governor Ueda, boosted expectations for a rate hike at the upcoming September meeting. However, the yen rally has been limited by surging energy prices due to…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy report explores the use of AI and large language models in analyzing and simulating FOMC meetings. It finds that while AI like ChatGPT can accurately classify the hawkishness of Fed commentary, simulating FOMC deliberations is less…
UBS CIO expects elevated bond yield volatility near term, with 30-year and 10-year US Treasury yields ending 2025 at 5% and 4.5% respectively. However, shorter-dated government bond yields should decline, supporting a preference for short- to…
ING Think's analysis of August US economic data highlights a robust manufacturing sector driven by tech investment, yet a subdued jobs market with low wage pressure. The ISM manufacturing index at 54.6 signals ongoing expansion, but employment remains weak,…
Saxo Bank's September 2026 report highlights a collision between rising commodity prices and higher interest rates. Energy and agricultural commodities are driving inflation up, while gold and silver face headwinds from tighter monetary conditions. Industrial…
The report covers Middle East energy and macro developments, highlighting oil price increases due to renewed US-Iran tensions, with Brent around USD91/b and WTI above USD86/b. Gold holds near USD4,445/oz amid safe-haven demand but faces headwinds from…
Wellington Management's September 2026 report argues that the forces pushing US long-term yields higher are structural, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance, shifting global capital flows, and leveraged positioning. The report views…
Man Institute's proprietary MacroScope model finds current market conditions most resemble May 1997 (pre-Asian crisis) and February 2013 (pre-taper tantrum), implying a fragile equilibrium where widely known risks are not yet disruptive. The firm adopts…
Headline eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% in August, the highest since the start of the Middle East war, driven by energy prices, while core inflation fell back to 2.4%, indicating limited pass-through. The ECB may hike in September, but the benign core rate…
The dollar is struggling to hold gains despite hawkish Fed expectations, with long-end Treasury yields and the debasement trade weighing on it. However, ING expects hawkish Fed repricing to support USD this week, with DXY potentially reclaiming 100.0. EUR/USD…
Saxo Bank reports renewed US-Iran hostilities lifting crude above $91, while global bond yields spike with the US 10-year topping 4.75% for the first time in 19 months. Equities decline amid inflation concerns, crypto equities rebound, and gold steadies after…
Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in August 2026, driven entirely by energy prices, with core inflation easing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects the ECB to hike rates once more in September, but sees reduced odds of further increases unless Middle East conflicts…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook covers market reactions to renewed US-Iran hostilities, which lifted oil prices and weighed on US equities, while global data showed India's strong GDP growth, China's PMI improving but still in contraction, and Japan's retail…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 1 September 2026 Research Monitor (September) Key Themes 1. “Time and tide waits for no man” according to Chaucer. August was again characterised by a…
MUFG has revised its USD/PHP forecasts slightly higher, expecting the pair to trade around 62.00 in 2H 2026 before declining to 61.00 by 1H 2027. The revision reflects USD/PHP breaking above 62.00, elevated oil prices, and sticky US yields. However, MUFG…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot discusses the muted US dollar gains following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, as rising energy prices and upcoming central bank meetings across G10 curtail dollar buying. The report highlights a close call for Fed rate…
MUFG's Asia FX commentary highlights mixed risk sentiment as markets digest Fed policy signals and Middle East tensions, with a notable view that Indian rates are likely to rise given robust GDP growth and other factors. The report also notes USD/JPY near…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…