Macro · Macro Rapid Response

中文标题

宏观 · 宏观快速响应

Intesa Sanpaolo09/01/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in August 2026, driven entirely by energy prices, with core inflation easing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects the ECB to hike rates once more in September, but sees reduced odds of further increases unless Middle East conflicts escalate. Italian inflation may rise toward 4% by end-2026 before easing.

Institution: Intesa Sanpaolo
Published: 09/01/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Energy prices accelerated sharply and are the sole driver of the headline inflation increase.
Core inflation and services inflation remain subdued, with few indirect or second-round effects.
The ECB is expected to hike rates in September, but further hikes are less likely unless energy shocks re-escalate.
Italian inflation could reach around 4% before declining to around 3% by March 2027.

Key numbers

Eurozone headline inflation: 3.3% y/y
Eurozone core inflation (ex energy, food, alcohol, tobacco): 2.4% y/y
Energy inflation: 14.3% y/y
Services inflation: 3.0% y/y
Italian NIC inflation: 3.2% y/y
Italian energy inflation (NIC): 17% y/y

Main risks

Escalation of Middle East hostilities could push energy prices higher, increasing inflation and the likelihood of further ECB rate hikes.
Underlying inflation may rise more than expected if indirect effects of energy costs materialize, especially in services.
The AI-driven surge in technology goods prices could lead to higher non-energy industrial goods inflation.

Corresponding source evidence

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