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Gold is caught between macro headwinds and strategic demand. A 3% dollar rally and a 50bp rise in US Treasury yields, with 10-year real yields near 3%, have pushed gold down about 5%. Yet ETF holdings rose to a four-year high of 3,149 tonnes, up 72 tonnes…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
The September FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 25bp hike but a split over whether supply or demand drives inflation; most saw another hike before year-end as likely, yet saw little urgency for October. US 10-year yields spiked intraday above 5.36%, a 24-year…
Oil rose 2% on reports the US could resume strikes on Iran before mid-term elections, with Brent above $102.30/bbl and WTI near $90/bbl. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf increased, and a tanker was stuck north of Qatar. EIA reported a…
UBS CIO expects the S&P 500 rally to continue after its first record since August, forecasting the index at 8,400 by June 2027. Support comes from AI capex growth above 33% to USD 1.2tr in 2027, roughly 25% S&P 500 earnings growth this year, and 2.2% US GDP…
SMBC argues Treasury demand has shifted from buy-and-hold investors, especially foreign official institutions, toward hedge funds that rely on repo funding. Using Federal Reserve Board elasticity estimates, the note calculates the market's demand sensitivity…
The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a fourth straight record close of 7,818.93, while volatility eased across tenors and the MOVE index fell 7.39%. The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, above consensus. Brent crude traded near $101.5 after reversing a…
Brent for December delivery trades near USD 101.60/b, up about 1%, and WTI is back above USD 90/b, up around 0.8%, as fighting in Yemen and the Bab al Mandeb waterway offset recovering Gulf flows. The API reported a 2.1m bbl draw in US commercial crude…
The Nasdaq rose over 1% to a record high while the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 24-year high. Market breadth has narrowed, with fewer US stocks above key moving averages and the equal-weighted S&P 500 lagging. UBS CIO retains strong conviction in AI…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
State Street's Jennifer Taylor argues the 2026 energy-driven inflation impulse is narrower than 2021-2022, so most EM central banks will pause or slow cuts rather than hike broadly. High starting yields favor carry in local currency EM debt, with duration and…
Seven months into the Iran conflict, the six-month WTI contract is about 25% above end-February levels, tracking prior geopolitical oil shocks. Yet IG credit spreads remain flat and Treasury yields have risen, echoing 2022 more than 1991. Higher all-in yields…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
Long-dated US Treasuries closed at multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at 5.66% and the 10-year at 5.30%, while the 2-year was near 4.82%. Wall Street advanced on easing near-term Fed hike expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite setting a record close.…
Middle East Daily, 6 October 2026. Brent December futures stabilize near USD 101/b and WTI November just under USD 90/b after Saudi OSP cuts and Yemeni advances toward Bab el Mandeb. Kuwait output recovered to ~2m b/d, 75% of pre-war 2.6m b/d, as Hormuz…
UBS CIO keeps a constructive 6-12 month view on risk assets after Brent fell 0.7% to USD 101.5/bbl, Middle East crude exports topped pre-war levels on four of the last seven September days, and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude…
MUFG argues the appeal of JGB yields to overseas real-money investors, key for stable absorption, has diminished. After deducting FX hedging costs, relative JGB attractiveness has fallen versus major government bonds, especially at 10-year maturities, because…
The report argues that resilient nominal growth, not inflation or fiscal fears, is driving Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year near 5%. Higher borrowing costs are pressuring low-quality credit and narrowing market breadth, yet stocks have stayed near…
Foreign investors held about $9.2 trillion of US Treasury debt at end-2025, roughly 31% of publicly held debt, but foreign holdings have grown more slowly than total Treasury supply. Within foreign holdings, private investors now account for 58.1% versus…
Speculative dollar longs against eight IMM futures surged 39% to USD 25.3 billion in the week to 29 September 2026, the highest in four weeks, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 27bp to 5.24%. Managed money sold 18 of 25 commodity futures, cutting WTI-Brent…