COT on forex and commodities
中文标题
外汇与大宗商品COT持仓报告
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Speculative dollar longs against eight IMM futures surged 39% to USD 25.3 billion in the week to 29 September 2026, the highest in four weeks, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 27bp to 5.24%. Managed money sold 18 of 25 commodity futures, cutting WTI-Brent longs to a five-week low of 335,000 contracts. Gold longs fell 2.7 million ounces while ETFs added 1.7 million ounces.
- Institution
- Saxo Bank
- Published
- 10/05/2026
- Research topic
- Gold · US Dollar (DXY) · USD/JPY
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- Aggregate USD long against eight IMM futures jumped 39% to USD 25.3 billion, up from USD 6 billion two weeks earlier, with CHF the only exception to broad dollar buying.
- Managed money were net sellers in 18 of 25 major commodity futures as the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 2.1%, with all sectors except softs declining.
- Gold positioning diverged: hedge funds cut longs by 2.7 million ounces in September while ETF holdings rose 1.7 million ounces to a four-year high, hinting at longer-term fiscal and debt concerns.
- The record grains net long above 1 million contracts was reduced to 923,000 contracts, with corn making up around 40% of the exposure, ahead of a 4% corn price slump.
Key numbers
- Aggregate USD IMM net long
- USD 25.3 billion, +39% w/w
- US 10-year Treasury yield
- 5.24%, +27bp
- WTI+Brent combined net long
- 335,000 contracts, five-week low
- Gold managed money long change (September)
- -2.7 million ounces
- Gold ETF holdings change (September)
- +1.7 million ounces, four-year high
Main risks
- Extreme speculative positioning can reverse sharply; dollar longs are crowded and vulnerable to a yield or data surprise.
- Gold ETF inflows may not persist if real yields keep rising, while hedge fund longs have already been reduced.
- Further grain liquidation is likely after the corn stock shock; the next COT report will reveal the scale, already telegraphed by a 4% corn drop.
Corresponding source evidence
• Gold investors diverge: Hedge funds cut their gold long by 2.7 million ounces during September, while ETF investors added 1.7 million ounces, lifting holdings to a four-year high.
The latest COT forex update covered a week when an accelerating sell-off in US Treasuries saw the 10-year yield jump 27 basis points to 5.24%, underpinning the dollar, which gained around 1% against a broad basket of major peers.
Beyond the yen, the only other remaining net long was in MXN, where bullish exposure was cut by 30% to a 14-month low.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · XAUUSD
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saxo BankCOT on forex and commodities | 10/05/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| OCBC ResearchDaily Treasury Outlook · Highlights | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Saxo Bank on 10/05/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction