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Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
A technology-led equity selloff drove a haven bid into Treasuries, pushing the 2-year yield down to about 4.7% and reversing the post-CPI rise, while the 10-year fell to roughly 5.05%. Lower US yields broadly relieved Asian currencies, but record foreign…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Australia's September employment fell 39.3k, but a 0.2ppt participation drop kept unemployment at 4.7%, now above the RBA's 4.6% NAIRU. Westpac expects the jobless rate to peak near 4.8% by Q2 2027 and still forecasts a 25bp RBA hike in November, with…
High oil prices lift Canada's aggregate purchasing power while squeezing households. Real GDP rose 1.1% year-over-year in Q2, but real GDI climbed 3.1% as terms of trade added about $12 billion per quarter. Gains concentrate in oil-producing regions:…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
PIMCO argues the AI infrastructure boom is not just a US story: announced capex by large US tech firms exceeds $1 trillion for 2026, with roughly $1.5 trillion more forecast thereafter, driving global supply chains and other economies. AI investment added…
Long-end yields have calmed after recent multi-decade highs, but ING sees at least one more leg of weakness that could push the US 10-year yield into a 5.25-5.5% range, with jitters possibly extending into Q1 2027. Drivers include fiscal issuance pressure,…
September US headline inflation rose 0.6% m/m and core 0.3%, with the annual core rate at 2.6%. UBS CIO still expects only two more Fed hikes (December, March), not the roughly 3.5 markets price. It raised its end-December 10-year Treasury yield forecast to…
ING argues EUR/USD will remain in a 1.10-1.15 range over the next three to six months, as a hawkish Fed and ECB repricing tied to French fiscal concerns keep real rate differentials at their widest since 2022. Neither driver looks set to reverse soon. A…
ING expects eurozone growth to moderate after a solid third quarter, with 2026 average growth of 1.0% and 1.2% in 2027 assuming energy prices normalise. HICP inflation rose to 3.8% in September, with underlying at 2.5%, and is likely to end 2026 above 4%…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
ING outlines three outcomes for the 3 November US midterms, where Democrats lead polls by roughly eight points. A Republican sweep would push the 10yr yield above 5.5% and the 2yr near 5%, boosting the dollar on looser fiscal, tighter Fed policy. A split…
One-day volatility rose about a third to 14.11 while the one-year measure barely moved, so the curve repriced a window rather than a view. September headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%. Equities sold the print, with the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the…
US September headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, above OCBC's 0.5% call, while core matched at 0.3% MoM; headline reached 3.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY. Motor fuel rose 9.3% MoM and contributed 0.36ppt, over half the monthly increase. Shelter added 0.14ppt; recreation…
Australian employment fell 39,300 in September, far below the expected 20,000 gain, led by a 73,700 drop in part-time work while full-time jobs rose 34,400. Unemployment stayed at 4.7% and participation slipped to 66.8%. CBA still expects the RBA to hold…
The report expects the Fed to hold in October and hike 25bp in December, with no further tightening in 2027 despite market pricing of 50bp. The ECB is seen hiking in December, not October, though surging German yields already deliver tightening equivalent to…
A hot US CPI initially lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, but both reversed sharply lower, with the 10-year yield closing below 5.10%. US equities sold off, challenging the usual dollar-risk correlation. Weak Australian jobs data and softer risk sentiment…
A hotter US September CPI (headline 3.7% from 3.4%, core 2.6% from 2.4%) first drove Treasury yields up, then reversed them below pre-CPI levels. Gold fell toward USD 4,066 before recovering to about USD 4,150 on 15 October. Technology stocks failed to rally…