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The US Treasury long-end buyback program is tightening swap spreads and lowering long-end yields, though the market remains cautious. The Fed is unlikely to hike, and geopolitical risks persist despite low volatility. The ECB may hike once more, with oil…
The dollar starts the week firm, supported by the bond market, but faces downside risks from escalating US-Canada trade tensions and potential US-China trade conflict. EUR/USD is likely to stabilize rather than rally above 1.170, with fair value just below…
Invesco argues that despite the US national debt surpassing $40 trillion, market concerns are overblown when viewed in context of rising household wealth and resilient earnings. Higher Treasury yields and oil prices are seen as manageable near-term issues,…
ING argues that the US Treasury's buyback program is not about financing via the TGA but about the signal of potential future expansion, which has tightened swap spreads. Meanwhile, eurozone growth is beating consensus, adding upward pressure on euro rates,…
UBS CIO advises investors to stay invested amid elevated long-end US Treasury yields, favoring short- to medium-maturity quality bonds and gold as a diversifier, while expecting equities to benefit from broadening earnings growth.
Westpac argues that the recent rise in long-dated global bond yields reflects both structural factors (higher government deficits, AI investment boom, aging populations) and cyclical factors (data center construction), and expects longer-dated yields to…
MUFG's Middle East Daily for 21 August 2026 highlights bullish oil and gold trends driven by geopolitical tensions and debt concerns, while Egypt holds rates amid inflation, Morocco faces deflation, and credit markets show resilience.
Invesco argues that the current AI-driven market rally is supported by real demand for computing power, unlike past speculative booms. Strong earnings growth without corresponding hiring suggests productivity gains are materializing. The firm maintains a…
TD Economics' Weekly Bottom Line for August 21, 2026, highlights a tentative Canada-U.S. trade agreement that boosted the Canadian dollar and reduced tariff risks, while Canadian bond yields rose. In the U.S., longer-term Treasury yields continued to climb,…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly discusses the Treasury's decision to double long-end buybacks, its implications for term yields, and the conditions under which yields might decline. The report suggests that buybacks alone are unlikely to durably lower…
Get early access. Subscribe to the From the US Market Desk LinkedIn newsletter. Our real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2026 is 2.5% (based on our Global Investment Management Survey) versus the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) forecast of 2.2% and the…
UBS CIO notes that the US Treasury's bond market intervention had a limited effect, with 30-year yields near 5.25%, while the dollar weakened and gold surged. They favor short/medium-duration bonds, see gold rising to USD 5,400/oz in 12 months, expect dollar…
MUFG's Middle East Daily report highlights rising oil prices amid US economic pressure on Iran, gold's rally following US Treasury buybacks, PIF's profit growth despite asset shortfalls, and Egypt's improved risk premium. The report also covers credit market…
Standard Chartered believes gold prices have likely bottomed and will grind higher to USD 4,600 over the next 6-12 months, supported by strong central bank demand and safe-haven flows, but capped by rising long-maturity bond yields. The bank recommends…
The FOMC minutes revealed upside inflation risks and potential policy tightening, while the US Treasury doubled buyback operations to support longer-dated bonds, easing yields. Tariff talks and US-Iran tensions added uncertainty. Markets saw modest equity…
The US Treasury's surprise doubling of longer-dated debt buybacks aims to cap long-end yields, but UBS CIO views it as a tactical move with limited long-term impact, given persistent fiscal deficits and supply concerns. The Fed is likely to stay on hold this…
MUFG's Middle East Daily report covers commodity and energy market conditions, focusing on oil and gold amid the US-Iran standoff, as well as regional macro updates including Saudi Arabia's US Treasury holdings and Saudi-Japan economic ties. The report…
Invesco's analysis suggests that the US Treasury's decision to at least double its buyback operations for longer-dated securities demonstrates policymakers' willingness and ability to intervene in bond markets, reducing the likelihood of a disorderly debt…
The report highlights rising oil prices due to fading US-Iran deal prospects and shipping disruptions, gold holding near record highs amid reduced Fed hike expectations, Saudi Arabia rerouting crude away from Bab el-Mandeb due to Houthi threats, Turkey's…
UBS CIO advises that despite rising long-term government bond yields, quality bonds remain attractive, especially short- and medium-maturity issues. They highlight that yields would need to rise significantly to erode returns, and expect yields to decline as…