Weekly Bottom Line

中文标题

每周底线

TD Economics / TD Securities08/21/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

TD Economics' Weekly Bottom Line for August 21, 2026, highlights a tentative Canada-U.S. trade agreement that boosted the Canadian dollar and reduced tariff risks, while Canadian bond yields rose. In the U.S., longer-term Treasury yields continued to climb, with the 30-year briefly hitting a 19-year high on fiscal concerns. U.S. housing starts plummeted 12.4% m/m to 1.2 million units in July. The Fed is expected to remain cautious, with 'several' FOMC participants ready to hike rates, while the BoC is likely to stay on hold in September.

Institution: TD Economics / TD Securities
Published: 08/21/2026
Research topic: Fixed Income · US10Y · Housing
Time horizon: medium-term · July 2026 · short-term · 1 week · August 2026

US10Y · US10Y WTI · WTI SPX · SPX FED · FED

Key arguments

The tentative Canada-U.S. trade deal adds a modest tailwind to BoC hike odds, but core inflation remains well-behaved, allowing the BoC to stay patient on rates.
Longer-term Treasury yields continue to climb due to shifting Fed policy expectations and a higher term premium, driven by fiscal supply concerns.
U.S. housing starts fell 12.4% m/m to 1.2 million units in July, their second-lowest level outside the pandemic since March 2019.
FOMC minutes showed deepening inflation concerns, with several participants ready to raise rates if inflation does not decline.
WTI prices rose 5% this week to a four-week high of $86/bbl, with growing tightness in refined product markets, particularly diesel and jet fuel.

Key numbers

U.S. 10-yr Treasury Yield: 4.72%
U.S. 30-yr Treasury Yield High: 19-year high
Canada 10-yr Bond Yield: 3.76%
U.S. Housing Starts (July): 1.2 million units (down 12.4% m/m)
WTI Crude Oil Price: $86/bbl (four-week high)
Gold Price: $4,597.3/troy oz.
S&P 500: 7,666 (down 1.5%)
NASDAQ: Down 2.4%

Main risks

Fiscal concerns and rising term premium could push longer-term Treasury yields even higher.
Renewed Middle East tensions could lead to higher oil prices and increased inflationary pressures.
The Canada-U.S. trade deal is not fully finalized, with CUSMA negotiations still ahead.
Housing activity is weak and could be further dampened by elevated interest rates.
Policymakers may need to tighten policy if inflation does not decline, which could weigh on growth.

Corresponding source evidence

With the U.S. expected to run annual deficits of +6% of GDP for the foreseeable future, the Treasury Department will need to issue a growing volume of securities. · medium-term
housing starts falling 12.4% m/m to 1.2 million units— their second-lowest level outside the pandemic since March 2019. · July 2026
WTI prices traded 5% higher this week and are now sitting at a four-week high of $86/bbl. More concerning is the growing tightness in refined product markets, particularly diesel and jet fuel. · short-term

Conditions / invalidation

despite it not being fully finalized
Reports suggest

Institution / report	Published	Direction	Source-checked target	Horizon
TD Economics / TD SecuritiesWeekly Bottom Line	08/21/2026	Bullish	—	Not stated
NatixisInflation Rises, Rates Ease	10/16/2026	Bullish	—	Not stated
ING THINKfx daily inflation versus ai overbuild story dominates	10/16/2026	Neutral	—	Not stated
SMBCUS Macroeconomics · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027	10/16/2026	Neutral	—	2027 Q4