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The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
Elevated global rates volatility, driven partly by the US 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%, is keeping eurozone government bond spreads wide despite European political efforts. A return to the low-volatility conditions that previously supported carry trades…
September FOMC minutes showed most participants expected another rate increase by year-end, keeping the dollar supported. ING sees DXY grinding toward 102.85 while markets already price a December hike to 4.25% plus 50bp next year. French debt unrest keeps…
The September FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 25bp hike but a split over whether supply or demand drives inflation; most saw another hike before year-end as likely, yet saw little urgency for October. US 10-year yields spiked intraday above 5.36%, a 24-year…
Fed minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials expecting another hike by year-end, though the probability of an October move stayed low and a 25bp December hike was largely priced. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching their…
MUFG stays selectively cautious on Asian FX as the US dollar firms. DXY rose around 0.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.3%, about 112bp above its start-of-year level. FOMC minutes showed all 19 officials backed September's 25bp hike and most saw…
August US producer prices were mixed: headline PPI rose 0.4% m/m and core 0.2% m/m, with 10bp upward revisions to July. Wholesaler margins received climbed 4.5% y/y, above the 2010-2019 range that prevailed alongside 2% inflation. Using today's PPI detail,…
Oil rose 2% on reports the US could resume strikes on Iran before mid-term elections, with Brent above $102.30/bbl and WTI near $90/bbl. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf increased, and a tanker was stuck north of Qatar. EIA reported a…
Westpac New Zealand Economics has revised its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast up by 25c to $9.75/kg, citing stronger than expected milk powder prices and shifting global demand from fats to proteins. A confirmed super-sized El Niño presents upside risk…
UBS CIO expects the S&P 500 rally to continue after its first record since August, forecasting the index at 8,400 by June 2027. Support comes from AI capex growth above 33% to USD 1.2tr in 2027, roughly 25% S&P 500 earnings growth this year, and 2.2% US GDP…
The National Bank of Poland left its reference rate at 3.75% in October. September inflation rose to about 4.0% year-on-year, but ING attributes the increase almost entirely to higher fuel prices, with core inflation likely easing slightly and no clear signs…
This BNP Paribas Eco Week editorial previews a sectoral review of Europe's economic recovery two years on from the Draghi report. No findings, figures or conclusions are provided in the available text; the article is a header with author details and links to…
AI has not yet caused broad labor-market disruption, but September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus a 90,000 consensus, with the three-month average at 51,000. Job losses are concentrated in Information and Finance, while Education and Health…
SMBC argues Treasury demand has shifted from buy-and-hold investors, especially foreign official institutions, toward hedge funds that rely on repo funding. Using Federal Reserve Board elasticity estimates, the note calculates the market's demand sensitivity…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
The MOVE index fell 7.39% to 105.21 — its second-largest one-session drop on record — while the 10-year yield barely moved at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.68%. Equity volatility is already exhausted: VVIX at 82.59 is lower than all 60 stored sessions. Saxo…
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50%, its first hike in four years, and shifted to a calibrated tightening stance, ruling out near-term cuts. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised up to 7.1% and 5.2%. ING expects a gradual cycle with 50bp more…
ABN AMRO maintains its end-2026 EUR/USD forecast at 1.15, arguing that although more negative German-US yield spreads and French fiscal-political uncertainty continue to weigh on the euro, markets are pricing in too many Fed and ECB rate hikes. If…
Bond volatility dominates markets as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5% and touched 5.34% on 1 October, the highest since 2002, driven by Middle East oil tensions, strong US data and heavy AI-related corporate issuance. Equities proved resilient, with…
Risk sentiment is improving — equities at records, Brent briefly below $100 and rate volatility easing — yet ING warns the relief is uneven and rates are unlikely to settle calmly. Marine Le Pen's fiscal plan tightened the 10y OAT/Bund spread by almost 10bp…