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SMBC's Joseph Abate analyzes Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, highlighting his criticism of forward guidance and preference for 'key principles' in a data-dependent policy framework. Warsh's approach emphasizes trends over isolated data, price stability…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily discusses Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance, indicating insufficient inflation progress and a potential September rate hike despite recent cooler inflation readings.
Westpac does not view the strong July CPI print as sufficient evidence to fully price in an RBA rate hike, maintaining that a November hike is plausible but not the base case.
PIMCO analyzes Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, interpreting his comments as signaling a potential rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Warsh emphasized the need for clear progress on underlying inflation, expressed skepticism about recent…
ING Think reports that the French economy narrowly avoided recession in H1 2026, with downward revisions to GDP showing stagnation in Q2 and contraction in Q1. Weak growth makes the government's fiscal targets unattainable, requiring additional consolidation.…
ING Think expects a quiet FX session with focus on Fed Chair Warsh's speech and long-end Treasury performance. They foresee limited dollar movement, with potential gains if hawkish signals emerge. EUR/USD likely rangebound supported by ECB tightening…
ING Think's report assesses the Eurozone and UK economic outlook six months into the Iran War, arguing that inflation has remained contained and that markets have overpriced additional rate hikes. It expects the ECB to hike once in September but sees further…
Nomura expects further USD weakness due to subdued US inflation, FOMC rate hold, unwinding of long USD positions, and Treasury buybacks. Positive supports include foreign equity inflows and carry trades, but medium-term bearish view on USD remains.
RBC Economics reports that Canada's real GDP rebounded strongly in Q2 2026, rising 3.3% annualized, driven by domestic demand and net trade, but expects growth to moderate in the second half due to temporary factors and U.S. tariffs, while the Bank of Canada…
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook highlights a tech-led rally in US equities boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, while oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran. Central bank speakers at Jackson Hole maintained a cautious inflation stance. BSP hiked rates…
UBS CIO expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026 and potentially cut in H1 2027, while elevated inflation and policy uncertainty from Chair Warsh keep long yields high. They recommend diversified portfolios with global equities, quality short-to-medium…
Canada's Q2 2026 GDP grew 3.3% annualized, the fastest in the G7, with strong domestic demand and investment. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates given robust interest-sensitive sectors. Momentum persists into Q3, though inventory swings and trade…
Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% this week but sees hikes starting in December, with two more next year, citing stronger growth and inflation risks. The US August nonfarm payrolls are forecast at +30k, and the report…
Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, with uncertainty over whether he will provide near-term guidance or focus on broader themes. Canada's Q2 GDP is expected to show strong growth, potentially the fastest in the G7. Eurozone…
ING expects the RBNZ to hike its OCR by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September, in line with market consensus, while retaining a hawkish bias. However, ING sees dovish risks from lower inflation projections, a potentially less hawkish message than markets price, and a…
ING Think analyzes Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as net hawkish despite his stated avoidance of forward guidance. The market reaction flattened the yield curve, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.3% and hike odds for September jumping to 54%. ING remains…
OCBC Research's daily credit snapshot highlights a strong US equity rally led by technology shares, with Nvidia results boosting AI sentiment. Oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran, and US jobless claims fell. Credit spreads tightened across US…
RBC Economics expects Canada's trade surplus to widen in July due to tariff front-loading, a smaller job gain in August, and the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in September. Risks from further tariff escalation and high oil prices persist, but the…
The calendar from Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department lists key macroeconomic releases and central bank events for the week of August 31 to September 4, 2026. It highlights advanced economies' inflation prints, PMIs, and the US labor market data, with a…
Italian business and consumer confidence rose in August 2026, led by construction and services, although household spending remains cautious. GDP growth may continue in Q3 but at a slower pace, with 2026 growth forecast at 0.8-0.9%.