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OCBC Research's Daily Treasury Outlook for 31 August 2026 highlights a hawkish Fed stance, with increased probability of a September rate hike, and key economic data releases ahead, including US CPI and nonfarm payrolls. The report also covers regional…
ING highlights that escalating US-Iran military strikes have pushed Brent above $90/bbl amidst risks to Persian Gulf oil flows, and warns of supply tightness in diesel and LNG. Gold faces headwinds from hawkish Fed comments, while agricultural markets show…
Westpac's latest Economic Overview indicates a recovering New Zealand economy following a pause during the Iran war, with growth expected to strengthen and broaden beyond the external sector. Persistent high inflation has shifted the RBNZ to a tightening…
OCBC Research's Weekly Research Views covers macro, geopolitical, and credit developments, highlighting a hawkish Fed, US-Iran conflict, and resilient Asia growth. Key forecasts include RBA hike, BNM hold, BoT normalization, BSP hikes, and Singapore/HK growth…
ING expects US 10-year yields to rise toward 4.75%-5% due to real rate pressures, while front-end rates remain sticky unless weak payrolls intervene; eurozone rates face upside risks from inflation surprises; oil is the key short-term driver of rates.
UBS CIO expects the Fed to keep rates on hold despite hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, favoring short- to medium-duration quality bonds.
UBS CIO expects limited near-term oil market impact from the US-Venezuela deal despite its strategic significance, maintains Brent at USD 85/bbl for Dec 2026 with upside risks, favors broad commodities, keeps Neutral on US energy equities, sees Fed rate hike…
MUFG's Asia FX Talk discusses the hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations following Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which has strengthened the US dollar and poses headwinds for Asian currencies, particularly THB and IDR, while SGD and MYR appear more…
Westpac's new Economic Overview presents a more optimistic view of the New Zealand economy, with strengthening growth expected. The report highlights key themes of improving economic conditions and a positive outlook, though specific forecasts and data are…
Westpac IQ's report 'Short duration nation' argues that Australia's financial system is structurally biased toward short-duration assets and floating-rate mortgages, unlike the US's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage model. This is due to tax incentives, APRA's…
Franklin Templeton's Fixed Income Research argues that US Treasury buybacks of long-term debt are ineffective without fiscal deficit reduction, and that the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has turned hawkish, prioritizing inflation control over supporting fiscal…
RBC Economics expects the August employment report to show 16K jobs added with unemployment holding at 4.1%, viewing the payroll slowdown as a supply-side story rather than labor market weakness. They highlight retirements and low immigration as key drivers…
Saxo Bank's Market Quick Take highlights Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Warsh's speech as the key event, with markets positioning for a hawkish tone. Equities show a narrow tech-led rally in the US, while Europe falls on French political risk. Bitcoin holds near…
Natixis reviews Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, which delivered a hawkish message without explicit forward guidance. The firm expects September's rate decision to hinge on August CPI data and leans toward another hold if inflation cools, despite…
France's public spending as a share of GDP remains among the highest in the euro area, ranking second in 2025 at 57.3% of GDP, driven by structurally elevated healthcare and social protection outlays, particularly pensions, which reached 13.4% of GDP in 2024.…
Natixis remains neutral on the long end of the UST curve, citing elevated uncertainty from the Treasury buyback program, while maintaining a bullish view on the belly (5-year) and swap spread flatteners. US inflation data was marginally hot but not…
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SMBC's US Rates Strategy Weekly for August 28, 2026, discusses tariff revenue replacement, the impact of tariffs on inflation, September seasonals for Treasuries, and economic forecasts. The report expects tariff effects on inflation to ebb by year-end,…
SMBC's Joseph Abate analyzes Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, highlighting his criticism of forward guidance and preference for 'key principles' in a data-dependent policy framework. Warsh's approach emphasizes trends over isolated data, price stability…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily discusses Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance, indicating insufficient inflation progress and a potential September rate hike despite recent cooler inflation readings.