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Korean chip stocks fell 6.12% overnight, breaking the Kospi below 6,000 and triggering a sell-side curb, while the S&P 500 closed virtually unchanged at 7,807.24. The divergence reflected low three-month implied correlation (11.75) and dispersion, not a broad…
Between 2015 and 2019, euro area goods exports from the major economies moved largely in tandem; since 2023, trajectories have diverged, with Southern European resilience tied to successive rotations across capital goods, chemicals, energy, manufactured and…
State Street upgraded its US dollar view from negative to neutral after a September rally driven by higher yields, elevated oil and resilient US growth; it flags the dollar as most likely to break higher out of an 18-month range and the euro as most likely to…
USD/JPY traded near 158, capped by the 200-day moving average around 158.50, after opening the week at 157.73. Speculation over US attacks on Iran supported oil and commodity currencies. September CPI on 14 October and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's 15 October…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…
Asian chip stocks plunged after a Chinese memory design advance by CXMT; the Kospi fell 6.12%, triggering a sell-side curb, with Samsung and SK Hynix hit. US bank earnings and key data (US CPI, Fed speakers) loom. Oil eased to USD 105.50 after Monday's spike,…
Citi remains in the 'resilience' camp on global equities, citing a firm macro backdrop and consensus MSCI AC World EPS growth of +35% this year, decelerating to +16% in 2027. Three headwinds are acknowledged — Fed hiking, geopolitics, French OAT-Bund spreads…
US equities closed mixed: S&P flat, Dow +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, with memory-chip and semiconductor names down 4-10% after China's CXMT DRAM progress. Brent rose 1.8% to USD106.7/bbl and WTI 2.0% to USD93.7/bbl on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and continuing…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated near 3% in the week of October 13, with an intraday range of 2.965%-3.115%. The 2-year-forward 1-month TONA OIS rate, a proxy for terminal-rate expectations, is seen holding around 2.5%, the top of the BoJ's…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
MUFG forecasts September 2026 headline CPI at 0.52% MoM (3.6% YoY) and core at 0.19% MoM (2.4% YoY), in line with consensus. Core goods face tariff and import/energy pressure, partly offset by used-auto deflation, while wireless services and lodging…
Higher rates do not automatically mean lower stocks; the drivers, speed, and earnings matter. Schwab argues the recent rise is mostly constructive, tied to growth and the AI capital buildout, though an energy shock or fiscal stress could turn it problematic.…
J.P. Morgan analysts say housing affordability is at its weakest US level since 2008: buying a median-priced home needs 43% of median household income, 30-year mortgage rates are near 7%, and only 35.2% of under-35s own homes. Chronic supply-demand…
The Fed sees a balanced US labor market after its September hike: payroll gains averaged about 142,000 in May but slowed to about 51,000 by September, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 3% year over year, the slowest since May…
BNP Paribas' EcoNews reports a firm but uneven global picture: eurozone activity holds (composite PMI 53.1) while producer inflation accelerates to 8.3% y/y, broadening price pressures. The Fed stays hawkish, with two more hikes expected; the next in…
BNP Paribas' 9 October 2026 markets overview shows Brent at $104.89 (+72.4% YTD) and gold at $4,185. Bund 10Y yields rose 59.8bp YTD to 3.46%, while OAT 10Y reached 4.76%, widening the OAT-Bund spread 54.5bp over one month. US 10Y Treasuries yielded 5.24%,…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
The US dollar's shallow consolidation leaves its rally intact ahead of Wednesday's September US CPI. USDJPY has risen above its 200-day moving average near 158.50, while EURUSD presses below 1.1200 on elevated German-French 10-year yield spreads at 141bp.…
Rising US Treasury yields are being read two ways: as an approaching debt crisis or as an economy resilient enough to support higher rates. The author finds no crisis signals—the dollar is firm, inflation expectations contained, and credit spreads mostly…