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UBS CIO notes that US Treasury yields rose across maturities on Wednesday after the Treasury's plan to buy back up to USD 6bn of longer-dated debt fell short of market expectations of USD 7-8bn, with higher oil prices amid fresh US-Iran strikes adding to…
Intesa Sanpaolo argues that the war in Iran has caused a smaller-than-expected global crude deficit because non-OPEC supply, demand destruction, and strategic reserve releases have offset lost Hormuz flows, while Europe's gas crisis deepens due to low…
Scotiabank's daily note flags a fully priced 25bp ECB deposit rate hike to 2.40%, with the key question being guidance after an October skip and a possible December move. Brent hovers near US$102/bbl and WTI around US$97, pushing US diesel to its highest…
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its 1-week repo rate at 37% and its interest rate corridor unchanged at 40% upper and 35.5% lower bands, as widely expected. The hold reflects caution over renewed geopolitical tensions that have lifted energy prices, raising…
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5%, the upper end of its neutral range, citing the recent Middle East escalation and oil price surge even as core inflation and survey-based expectations show few second-round effects. Staff projections leave 2026…
Standard Chartered argues that the surge in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to a three-decade high of 3% has forced Prime Minister Takaichi to abandon her resistance to monetary tightening. Facing a fiscal emergency from mounting public debt, she has…
Brent crude crossed USD 100 after US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to a 2023 high of 4.845% and pushing the S&P 500 to a third straight decline of 0.48%. Dispersion dominated: Meta rose 6.55% on its Muse…
Italian industrial production rebounded 0.7% month-on-month in July 2026, beating expectations after two consecutive declines, but the working-day-adjusted year-on-year rate was flat at 0.0%. The recovery was broad-based across sectors except energy (-0.9%…
The ECB raised its three official rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, in line with market expectations. Intesa Sanpaolo argues this was the last…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 FX FX Daily: The hawkish bar is set high for the ECB As the ECB delivers its well-telegraphed 25bp hike, we doubt it will signal enough…
• Macro: US-Iran escalation drove supply-risk fears while weak ADP payrolls and a disappointing Treasury buyback lifted yields. • Equities: US and European equities fell as $100 oil revived inflation fears, while Asia extended the risk-off move. • Volatility:…
1 10 September 2026 Middle East Daily 10 September 2026 COMMODITIES / ENERGY Oil holds above USD 100/b as Iran signals prolonged escalation. Oil held near recent highs, with brent around USD 101/b, while WTI traded above USD 96/b. Prices were supported…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 RATES SPARK Rates Spark: Oil back above $100 We think the ECB will hike rates, but the path thereafter remains open. Oil breaching $100 and record…
Read full report 'Westpac Card Tracker, 10 September 2026' (PDF 572KB) The Westpac–DataX Card Tracker Index* has softened a touch since early August, dipping 1.1pts to 158.1 but coming off what was a new historical high. Despite this, quarterly growth…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 COMMODITIES DAILY The Commodities Feed: Brent breaks above $100/bbl amid US-Iran escalation Oil prices continued to climb, with Brent breaking above $100/bbl, as…
• The global economy has weathered the energy shock better than expected, with growth forecast. • The US economy remains resilient, supported by strong investment and AI-related spending, although higher energy prices are adding to inflation pressures. •…
Escalating Middle East tensions dominated markets: the US military destroyed five Iranian tankers and Iran retaliated against a US-used base in Jordan. Brent crude rose 3.4% to USD101.21/bbl and WTI gained 3.2% to USD96.05/bbl. US equities fell for a third…
MUFG reports FX majors stable, with USD/JPY just above 153.00, as markets await the ECB meeting and US CPI. The US Treasury tripled its first larger long-term bond buyback to USD6bn, keeping the dollar about 1% weaker since the 19 August announcement. Brent…
The ECB raised the deposit rate 25bp to 2.50%, the upper end of its neutral estimate, with hawkish projection revisions and forcefuller warnings that Middle East conflict energy inflation is intensifying, making the adverse scenario (oil ~USD 100/bbl, gas…
Brent crude has reclaimed US$100/bbl on escalating US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks, with agricultural prices also higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5bps to 4.84% even after a planned US$6bn long-dated buyback, keeping financial conditions…