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Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
ING outlines three outcomes for the 3 November US midterms, where Democrats lead polls by roughly eight points. A Republican sweep would push the 10yr yield above 5.5% and the 2yr near 5%, boosting the dollar on looser fiscal, tighter Fed policy. A split…
France's fiscal troubles and widening spreads have raised the question of whether the ECB could use its Transmission Protection Instrument. The bar for TPI activation remains high: it would at minimum require France's budget to be fully adopted, and early…
One-day volatility rose about a third to 14.11 while the one-year measure barely moved, so the curve repriced a window rather than a view. September headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%. Equities sold the print, with the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the…
Natixis analysts warn that French banks, despite strong credit fundamentals, remain structurally exposed to sovereign risk ahead of the 2027 presidential election. They cut France's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and see the public deficit at -5.4% of GDP…
US September headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, above OCBC's 0.5% call, while core matched at 0.3% MoM; headline reached 3.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY. Motor fuel rose 9.3% MoM and contributed 0.36ppt, over half the monthly increase. Shelter added 0.14ppt; recreation…
Australian employment fell 39,300 in September, far below the expected 20,000 gain, led by a 73,700 drop in part-time work while full-time jobs rose 34,400. Unemployment stayed at 4.7% and participation slipped to 66.8%. CBA still expects the RBA to hold…
The report expects the Fed to hold in October and hike 25bp in December, with no further tightening in 2027 despite market pricing of 50bp. The ECB is seen hiking in December, not October, though surging German yields already deliver tightening equivalent to…
A hot US CPI initially lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, but both reversed sharply lower, with the 10-year yield closing below 5.10%. US equities sold off, challenging the usual dollar-risk correlation. Weak Australian jobs data and softer risk sentiment…
A hotter US September CPI (headline 3.7% from 3.4%, core 2.6% from 2.4%) first drove Treasury yields up, then reversed them below pre-CPI levels. Gold fell toward USD 4,066 before recovering to about USD 4,150 on 15 October. Technology stocks failed to rally…
A hot September US CPI briefly lifted short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar, but the move reversed within hours as investors focused on a sell-off in debt issued by high-profile AI companies, notably Coreweave's 2032 bonds at 78 cents. ING reads the…
Brent trades near USD 104.70/b and WTI near USD 94.32/b as demand concerns offset Middle East geopolitical risk; the IEA now sees 2026 oil demand falling 2.6m b/d. Gold slumped over 1.3% to USD 4,105/oz after US September core CPI accelerated to 2.6% y/y,…
September US headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline up 34.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 16bp before reversing to about 4.73%, and the 10-year fell below 5.11% as weak risk sentiment drove a haven bid.…
AI demand remains strong, but investors are increasingly focused on valuations, debt financing and returns. CoreWeave's bonds yielding near 15% signal credit scrutiny, though a systemic AI credit crisis is not evident. Hot September US CPI at 3.7% headline…
Australian bond issuance reached a record A$326.7 billion in the year to 12 October 2026, surpassing calendar 2024's A$324.66 billion. Domestic issuance rose 28% year-on-year in the first nine months, while Kangaroo bonds grew 16.6% to A$68.8 billion on…
September US headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, 3.7% YoY, on a 9.1% gasoline surge; core rose 0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY. October hike pricing rose above 50% before easing to 35%, while the Fed's Collins backed a further hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, Nasdaq 1.88%; the 2Y…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
US September headline CPI rose to 3.7% y/y versus 3.6% consensus, and core to 2.6% y/y. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked toward 4.95% before easing to 4.80%, while DXY touched 102.95, then eased to 102.50. MUFG says elevated yields and oil prices intensify…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m SA and headline CPI 0.65%, both above consensus on core, lifting core y/y to 2.6% and headline to 3.7%. Core goods (+0.3%) and core services ex-housing (+0.4%) show pass-through from commodities and tariffs. PCE is tracking…