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Société Générale compares stablecoins to the 1950s eurodollar market: offshore dollars outside US regulatory reach and banking hours. The parallel suggests stablecoins may reshape cross-border payments the way eurodollars reshaped global funding, though the…
ING argues time is not on France's side: the 10y OAT/Bund spread briefly tightened below 100bp but faces more upside than downside risks. France's €54bn plan to cut the deficit to 5% faces political headwinds, with presidential and legislative elections ahead…
Norges Bank is expected to deliver a final 25bp hike to 4.50% on 24 September, a close call. Core inflation at 3.0% in August undershot the 3.3% projection, but headline CPI at 3.3% exceeded projections. Solid domestic conditions, 4.0% wage growth expected…
Argentina and Türkiye both show ~30% y/y consumer inflation but have used sharply different disinflation strategies. Argentina's shock therapy under Milei has delivered resilient growth (GDP +4% since 2023) but created a severe household debt trap: 5.8…
UBS CIO argues rising rates alone will not derail equities, as the Fed, ECB, and BoE tighten and the BoJ enters a new policy phase. Resilient growth and robust earnings support staying positioned for upside, with transformational innovation in AI, energy…
SMBC's US rates team argues the inflation-unemployment mix implies a rising rule-consistent policy rate, supporting further hikes after September's 25bp move. The CPI-minus-unemployment gap, a monthly Taylor Rule proxy watched for over 40 years, has preceded…
Despite a $20+ oil surge, a 60bp rise in 2-year Treasury yields, Fed tightening, and the bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the S&P 500 sits only 2.07% below its August 13 record. Invesco argues bullish fundamentals—strong nominal growth, outsized…
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25% to a 3.75%-4% range in a unanimous September decision, framed as an insurance and credibility measure to return inflation to target sooner. Projections imply one further hike by end-2026, then a hold in 2027.…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
Natixis argues Xi Jinping arrives at the Washington summit with greater leverage, as China's August exports rose 25% to $401.44bn, the trade surplus widened to $119bn and shipments to the US jumped 34.4%. Meanwhile, the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Equity volatility fell across the curve after Friday's record quarterly expiry, yet the tail did not cheapen: CBOE SKEW rose 2.40 points to 148.10 while VIX fell 4.08% to 14.81 and VIX1D dropped 12.96% to 11.42. Bond volatility rose 5.80% to 80.64 with the US…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
As the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, higher real rates have compressed S&P 500 forward valuations from about 23x to 19x. Yet equities have stayed resilient because forward earnings growth expectations strengthened, offsetting the discount-rate…
This BNP Paribas Eco Week item, published 21 September 2026 and classified to eurozone, UK and US jurisdictions, is flagged as an article coming soon with no substantive economic content yet available. The only named contributor is Francois Faure of the…
The Fed raised its funds target range 25bp to 3.75-4.00% unanimously under Chair Warsh, with 16 of 19 members seeing another hike by year-end; BNP expects at least two more, December base case. The BOJ lifted its rate to 1.25%, a 1995 high, but two dissents…
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, with two board members dissenting. Governor Ueda said the underlying CPI has moved closer to 2%, prompting a shortened three-month rate cycle. Natixis now expects 25bp hikes in…
Natixis sees Asian growth bifurcating: China softens and drags exposed sectors, while North Asia, India and parts of ASEAN accelerate. Exports are China's key engine on a competitive real exchange rate, but ageing cuts its growth to around 1% by 2050. Japan's…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
Westpac's review of Australia's 2026 Intergenerational Report flags AI as a potential productivity game-changer, but stresses gains depend on widespread adoption, and estimates are uncertain. Ageing lifts health, aged care and pension costs while shrinking…