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US 10yr Treasury yields extended their overshoot toward 5.25-5.5%, driven mainly by higher real yields rather than inflation expectations, which remain contained. Weak 5yr and 7yr auctions added momentum, pushing yields above 5.1% and near 5.2%. Bearish…
Westpac's NZ Weekly Economic Insight examines the trend of rising global interest rates and questions whether New Zealand rates should follow them higher. The note does not present specific forecasts or targets, instead framing the debate around the…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily argues that cyclical-sector payrolls, which fell in 2024 and 2025, are now accelerating, pointing to a brighter labor market and growth outlook. The firm says this stabilization, alongside median wage growth realigning with…
Natixis reviews Q3-26 transportation credit. BMW's June China profit warning triggered an auto earnings reset; VW added 50,000 job cuts plus four German plant closures, and warned of about €10bn negative impact. Renault won a Moody's upgrade to investment…
Bitcoin has recovered roughly 37% since mid-August and IBIT has taken in about USD 3.76bn over that period, yet the options market is pricing implied volatility of 37.4% against 45.5% realised over 20 sessions, with an IV rank near 11.9. Saxo examines two…
US senators and governors have proposed banning diesel exports to relieve farmers. Due to legal delegation, President Trump could enact such a ban without further Congressional action. The US exports 1.0–1.5 mb/d, much to Latin America. Mexico, Chile, and…
ING reads Czech September confidence as consistent with sub-par expansion. Consumer confidence rose 2.8 points to 105.1, which ING treats largely as a correction; business confidence fell 1.8 points to 98.4, below expectations and the long-run average, led by…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
UBS CIO argues the recent Treasury selloff, which pushed the 10-year yield above 5.1% for the first time since 2007, need not derail markets. The firm expects the Fed to hike once more in December and then hold, with disinflation and favorable base effects…
ING argues US manufacturing is genuinely reviving after three stagnant years, with the ISM production index back above 50 and order books firm. Growth of 1.5-2% annually over three years is forecast, but the headline masks bifurcation: advanced…
Gold trades near USD 4,262/oz, down about 4% this month, pressured by rising Treasury yields, an 18-year-high 10-year real yield of ~2.78%, and a ~1.5% stronger dollar. Yet gold ETFs added almost 50 tonnes in September and Chinese demand topped 1,000 tonnes…
Global bonds extended their slide, with the US 10-year yield at 5.1142% and the 30-year near 5.4%, pressuring US equities. Robust US September PMIs (manufacturing 57, services 58.7) reinforced growth expectations. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would stay…
The dollar rally looks stretched after DXY broke above 101.0 on strong US PMIs, higher oil and soft risk sentiment; absent upside US data surprises, ING expects a correction toward 100-100.5. EUR/USD's break below 1.140 is stretched undervaluation, with…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5% in July, despite employment rising by 39,000 as participation climbed 0.2pp to 67.1%. Part-time jobs increased by 46,000 while full-time fell by 6,000; hours worked rose 0.7% m/m and…
US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, prompting a sharp sell-off in Treasuries. The 10-year yield closed above 5.11%, a post-GFC high, and the 2-year reached 4.89%. Equities fell, the dollar…
MUFG flags elevated USD/JPY volatility over Japan's autumn holidays after the BOJ hiked to 1.25% with two dissents while the Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The pair pushed above 157.50; MUFG's forecast range is 155.00-159.00, with…
Citi argues tokenization of collateral has moved from concept to practical use. Four case studies show real-time margining, US Treasuries mobilized across a 24-hour cycle without leaving the Federal Reserve, tokenized money market funds, and pre-IPO private…
Global bonds extended their selloff, lifting the US 10-year yield to 5.1142% and the 30-year to near 5.4%, with European curves also higher. Strong September flash PMIs and a weak USD70bn 5-year auction reinforced rate-hike expectations. US equities fell (S&P…
Strong US PMIs and rising oil prices deepened the Treasury selloff, lifting 2-year yields 14bp to about 4.9% and the 10-year above 5.0%. Markets price roughly 37bp of additional Fed tightening by December 2026. The DXY rose 0.5%, pressuring most Asian…