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US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
With 10-year yields above 5% in the US and Australia, the manager argues high-quality bonds again offer income plus a hedge if synchronized tightening into an oil supply shock slows growth. It favours front-end Australian government bonds, expects RBA cuts in…
September brought a violent global bond repricing, with the US 10-year yield rising over 50bp to 5.28% and the 30-year to 5.63%, on strong US growth, an oil supply shock and a hawkish Fed hike to 4%. Equities held up at the index level (S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq…
Renewed Gulf conflict pushed oil above US$100 and drove developed-market bond yields to multi-decade highs. The Fed, ECB, RBA and BOJ all tightened as markets priced further hikes. Schroders argues elevated starting yields — portfolio yield ~6.5% — provide an…
US September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus ~90k expected, with August revised down to 133,000; unemployment edged up to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% MoM (3.0% YoY). The S&P 500 gained 0.73% on Friday, led by tech, while the 10-year…
September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus 90k consensus, with unemployment at 4.2% and wage growth at 0.1% m/m, weakening the case for an October Fed hike. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded intraday from 5.15% to about 5.29% and the 2-year…
The euro fell to fresh year-to-date lows against the dollar (1.1161) and yen (176.41) as fiscal contagion fears from a French government bond sell-off intensified. The 10-year French yield neared 5.0%, with its spread over Bunds above 140bps, while the 2-year…
USD/JPY opened September at 159.77 and traded both sides of 157 as the BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the Fed raised 25bp. Washington now treats yen undervaluation as a leader-level issue, and a move above 160 would likely trigger stronger warnings and possible…
This fixed-income calendar previews Japan data for October 5-9, 2026. MUMSS forecasts August total cash earnings at +3.5% YoY versus +3.7% consensus, regular pay at +2.9%, a current-account surplus of JPY3,211.4bn, real household spending down 3.8%, and a…
New Zealand's recovery is uneven but resilient, with filled jobs up 0.9% in the year to August and agriculture driving regional growth. Inflation pressures persist in rate-insensitive sectors; annual CPI hit 4.1% in June and fuel costs are rising again.…
BNP Paribas market review as of 2 October 2026 shows Brent at $102.25, up 68% year-to-date, and gold at $4,145, down 4.7% over the week. US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.28%, with a 1-week change of -1.2bp, while the OAT-Bund spread widened by 38.2bp. EUR/USD…
Westpac reads the RBA's September 2026 unanimous 25bp hike to 4.60% as opening the door to a follow-up move in November, absent a lasting resolution of the Middle East conflict or another event that significantly lowers Australia's energy cost outlook. The…
J.P. Morgan analysts assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on oil, gold, aluminum, and global growth following the June 2026 ceasefire and partial Strait of Hormuz reopening. Brent crude spiked above $100/bbl, then fell to $71.57 before rebounding…
Brazil's general election leads a heavy Latam week. Polls put Lula about 4-5ppts ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, with a second round on October 25. September CPI is seen rising 0.1-0.3ppts across Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil. Scotiabank expects the BCRP to…
After weeks dominated by geopolitics, central bank policy has again become a decisive FX driver. Deutsche Bank expects the currently supported USD to weaken somewhat over the medium term, with the EUR helped by a restrictive ECB stance and stronger euro area…
Annual revisions raised U.S. GDP growth and lowered past inflation, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 4.6% in Q2. September payrolls rose only 29k, prior months were revised lower, unemployment edged up to 4.2% on higher participation,…
Eurozone September inflation rose to 3.8% y/y, the highest since September 2023, driven by energy (+18.8% y/y). Core measures stayed contained, with HICP ex energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.5%. Intesa Sanpaolo expects headline inflation to peak just…
US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k in September, versus 90k expected, with 60k downward revisions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and wage growth slowed to 3% year-on-year. Manufacturing added jobs for a fourth straight month, while services…
The global FX market is being reshaped by the worst bond sell-off in decades. The 10-year UST yield reached 5.34%, a 24-year high, after its sharpest quarterly rise in 32 years. This lifted the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1259 after touching 1.1215, its lowest…
US 10-year Treasury yields swung between 5.34% and 5.24% as resilient manufacturing and jobless claims clashed with dovish Fed comments. UBS CIO expects employment and disinflation to let equities absorb moderately higher rates, forecasting S&P 500 earnings…