Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
State Street's Jennifer Taylor argues the 2026 energy-driven inflation impulse is narrower than 2021-2022, so most EM central banks will pause or slow cuts rather than hike broadly. High starting yields favor carry in local currency EM debt, with duration and…
Seven months into the Iran conflict, the six-month WTI contract is about 25% above end-February levels, tracking prior geopolitical oil shocks. Yet IG credit spreads remain flat and Treasury yields have risen, echoing 2022 more than 1991. Higher all-in yields…
The National Bank of Poland is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% on 7 October despite September CPI at 4.0% YoY. Fuel-market intervention (lower excise duty and VAT) will subtract 0.7pp from CPI through year-end. Price pressures appear limited to…
French manufacturing rebounded only 0.3% in August after a 0.8% July decline, and the three-month trend remains clearly negative at -1.9%. Weak orders, high inventories, falling goods consumption and tightening financial conditions reinforce the risk of…
September 2026 was the worst month of the year for US IG (-2.72%), US HY (-2.52%) and Asia IG (-2.04%) total returns, with Asia USD HY relatively resilient at -1.20%. The Fed's first hike in roughly three years pushed the 10Y UST to a 2026 high of 5.29% (30Y…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
Long-dated US Treasuries closed at multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at 5.66% and the 10-year at 5.30%, while the 2-year was near 4.82%. Wall Street advanced on easing near-term Fed hike expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite setting a record close.…
ABN AMRO argues current OAT-Bund spreads price more than France's weaker fiscal fundamentals: the OAT-CDS basis has widened sharply, and an unexplained spread component (beyond euro-area factors, rates volatility and French CDS-implied credit risk) sits near…
Middle East Daily, 6 October 2026. Brent December futures stabilize near USD 101/b and WTI November just under USD 90/b after Saudi OSP cuts and Yemeni advances toward Bab el Mandeb. Kuwait output recovered to ~2m b/d, 75% of pre-war 2.6m b/d, as Hormuz…
French bond market turbulence is weighing on the euro via a contained fiscal risk premium and a sharp repricing of ECB rate expectations, leaving EUR/USD risks skewed to the downside toward 1.110 or 1.100. The dollar stays broadly supported, the BoE speaker…
Treasury yields reached two-decade highs, with the 10Y at 5.31% and 30Y at 5.67%, while tech-led gains lifted the S&P 500 to near a record high. The dollar extended a three-week rally, nearing its strongest 2026 levels. Brent fell 1.9% to $100.32 after Saudi…
MUFG argues Asia FX can outperform in the near term, favoring tech-linked TWD and KRW, then MYR and SGD, as strong AI exports and a less acute regional diesel supply picture support resilience. European political and fiscal risks dominate EUR, prompting a…
The yen gave back recent gains after a Bloomberg report that Japan's GPIF did not discuss portfolio allocation at last month's meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. MUFG notes the yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since end-August, with…
Pictet keeps an overweight stance on global equities despite a two-decade-narrow earnings yield gap versus bonds, citing over 30% MSCI World earnings growth this year and over 65% for emerging markets. It holds neutral duration on DM government bonds and…
J.P. Morgan keeps a positive relative stance on developed-market SMID caps versus large caps, noting the Russell 2500 rose ~16% year to date as of September 16 versus ~10% for the S&P 500. Easing wage inflation, favorable debt structures, heavy…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
Wellington Management has downgraded global equities from overweight to moderately overweight, while upgrading US and UK government bonds to moderately overweight, as higher oil prices, rising bond yields and a hawkish policy backdrop weaken near-term…
Saxo Bank argues the directional outcome of an individual earnings trade is close to a coin flip, and that the edge comes from the payoff shape, the size of the sample, and disciplined execution. Q3 2026 reporting opens on 8 October with PepsiCo, followed by…
UBS CIO keeps a constructive 6-12 month view on risk assets after Brent fell 0.7% to USD 101.5/bbl, Middle East crude exports topped pre-war levels on four of the last seven September days, and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude…
MUFG argues the appeal of JGB yields to overseas real-money investors, key for stable absorption, has diminished. After deducting FX hedging costs, relative JGB attractiveness has fallen versus major government bonds, especially at 10-year maturities, because…