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BNP Paribas published its Eco Week markets overview dated 5 October 2026, authored by Tarik Rharrab of the Data and Analytics Team. The available article body contains only publication navigation, editorial placeholders and research-department descriptions;…
Eurozone September flash inflation surprised upside at 3.8% y/y on energy and services; French OAT yield surpassed 4.9% and HICP hit 3.4%. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualised, but September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment climbed to 4.2%;…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% yoy in September, above Natixis's 3.5% forecast and up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation matched the 2.5% forecast, rising from 2.4%. Energy contributed the most at 1.70pp (18.82% yoy),…
Westpac's Cliff Notes flags a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, with a follow-up in November viewed as likely if Middle East conflict does not resolve. Underlying CPI rose 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y). US PCE eased but core stays at 3.0% y/y; Japan's Tankan supports a possible…
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
This weekly note reviews two developments in New Zealand: an upbeat Pre-Election Fiscal Update and a generally resilient September business confidence reading. No specific figures, forecasts or market calls are provided in the available text. The publication…
European diesel imports face mounting pressure from a possible US export ban, the loss of Russian and Chinese supplies and low stocks. Since late February, crude is up 46% while European diesel has doubled. Europe, importing 46% of its diesel with 40% from…
On 17 September the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6–3 vote, but several hold voters said the case for tightening was building. The Bank expects inflation near 3.75% in Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, driven by energy. August CPI rose to…
Natixis's September 2026 US dual mandate snapshot: August payrolls rebounded 162k, broadly based, erasing earlier soft prints, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and headline 0.4% m/m. Because most policymakers already saw labor as near…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
The DXY dollar index is testing the year's highs near 101.80 as firm US activity data and ADP payroll signals keep Fed tightening expectations intact, despite a softer August PCE print. EUR/USD is at the year's lows, vulnerable to a deeper French OAT-Bund…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
The Cotality national home value index fell 1.1% in September, following downwardly revised declines of 1.2% in August and 1.4% in July. Annual growth flattened, leaving prices 5.2% below their March peak. Declines were widespread across major cities, led by…
Australia's goods trade surplus narrowed to $0.5bn in August from a downwardly revised $1.4bn in July, well below market consensus for a broadly stable reading. Volatility remains concentrated in non-monetary gold, with exports up 20% and imports up 91%.…
US 10-year Treasury yields closed at 5.2849% after softer August PCE (headline 3.4% y-o-y vs 3.7% consensus; core steady at 3.0%) initially lifted risk appetite, but the move reversed on resilient growth: 2Q GDP revised to 2.2% and ADP payrolls at 90k.…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…