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US equities closed mixed: S&P flat, Dow +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, with memory-chip and semiconductor names down 4-10% after China's CXMT DRAM progress. Brent rose 1.8% to USD106.7/bbl and WTI 2.0% to USD93.7/bbl on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and continuing…
The RBI's new FX measures, including a 20% FERR on large USD/INR forwards, helped spot INR strengthen 1% in a day. But pressure moved to forward premia, wider onshore-offshore spreads and higher bond yields. MUFG expects USD/INR to rise gradually to 97.50 by…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
BNP Paribas' EcoNews reports a firm but uneven global picture: eurozone activity holds (composite PMI 53.1) while producer inflation accelerates to 8.3% y/y, broadening price pressures. The Fed stays hawkish, with two more hikes expected; the next in…
BNP Paribas' 9 October 2026 markets overview shows Brent at $104.89 (+72.4% YTD) and gold at $4,185. Bund 10Y yields rose 59.8bp YTD to 3.46%, while OAT 10Y reached 4.76%, widening the OAT-Bund spread 54.5bp over one month. US 10Y Treasuries yielded 5.24%,…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
The US dollar's shallow consolidation leaves its rally intact ahead of Wednesday's September US CPI. USDJPY has risen above its 200-day moving average near 158.50, while EURUSD presses below 1.1200 on elevated German-French 10-year yield spreads at 141bp.…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
Eleven of fourteen volatility measures fell Friday, with front-end VIX1D down 11.62% to 9.05 and VIX at 14.84. SKEW rose 3.45% to 154.34, near its quarter high, on readable flow selling that wing. Implied correlation at 11.33 and dispersion at 36.02 sit in…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
Spain's PM dissolved both houses of Parliament on 5 October 2026, calling early elections for 29 November. Natixis sees a likely shift from left to right, with a PP-led coalition including Vox. Spanish fundamentals remain solid, with growth above the euro…
A weekend attack on Riyadh airport briefly pushed Brent above USD 105.50 before it reversed to near USD 103.70, as resilient crude flows, Russia's partial diesel export ban lift and an energy ceasefire offset tensions. Gold stalled above USD 4,200 at USD…
OCBC expects US September headline CPI at 0.6% MoM on fuel, with core at 0.2%, while Singapore's advance 3Q26 GDP is seen at 5.7% YoY and MAS is anticipated to steepen the S$NEER slope by 25bps to 1.5%. The 10-year UST yield closed at 5.243% and the S&P 500…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
The US dollar index stayed firm near 102.20 despite softer University of Michigan sentiment (46.3) and higher one-year inflation expectations (4.7%). Strong 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions capped long-end yields. India and Taiwan saw foreign equity…
Westpac NZ argues higher fuel costs, a weaker NZD and a soft housing market have shifted the near-term outlook. Annual CPI is expected to dip to 3.7% in September before rising to a three-year high of 4.2% by December, half a point above Westpac's prior…
Westpac's Australia and NZ Weekly argues that statistical revisions — to US PCE inflation, UK productivity and Canadian population — show measurement is imperfect and warrant humility in policy pronouncements. Australian data showed consumer sentiment down…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…