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Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, with AI and capital goods investment driving the cycle. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK and Eurozone, and is expected to peak in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, though energy inflation may spread.…
French bonds outperformed, with yields down about 10bp across the curve and spreads over bunds tighter, after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen proposed cutting the deficit from 5-6% to just over 2% by 2032 and called for ECB action. Quebec's election…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
Long-dated US Treasuries closed at multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at 5.66% and the 10-year at 5.30%, while the 2-year was near 4.82%. Wall Street advanced on easing near-term Fed hike expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite setting a record close.…
Middle East Daily, 6 October 2026. Brent December futures stabilize near USD 101/b and WTI November just under USD 90/b after Saudi OSP cuts and Yemeni advances toward Bab el Mandeb. Kuwait output recovered to ~2m b/d, 75% of pre-war 2.6m b/d, as Hormuz…
Treasury yields reached two-decade highs, with the 10Y at 5.31% and 30Y at 5.67%, while tech-led gains lifted the S&P 500 to near a record high. The dollar extended a three-week rally, nearing its strongest 2026 levels. Brent fell 1.9% to $100.32 after Saudi…
MUFG argues Asia FX can outperform in the near term, favoring tech-linked TWD and KRW, then MYR and SGD, as strong AI exports and a less acute regional diesel supply picture support resilience. European political and fiscal risks dominate EUR, prompting a…
The yen gave back recent gains after a Bloomberg report that Japan's GPIF did not discuss portfolio allocation at last month's meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. MUFG notes the yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since end-August, with…
Pictet keeps an overweight stance on global equities despite a two-decade-narrow earnings yield gap versus bonds, citing over 30% MSCI World earnings growth this year and over 65% for emerging markets. It holds neutral duration on DM government bonds and…
J.P. Morgan keeps a positive relative stance on developed-market SMID caps versus large caps, noting the Russell 2500 rose ~16% year to date as of September 16 versus ~10% for the S&P 500. Easing wage inflation, favorable debt structures, heavy…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
MUFG argues the appeal of JGB yields to overseas real-money investors, key for stable absorption, has diminished. After deducting FX hedging costs, relative JGB attractiveness has fallen versus major government bonds, especially at 10-year maturities, because…
As of 2 October 2026, Brent crude rose to $102.25 (+1.8% w/w, +68.0% YTD), gold fell to $4,145 (-4.7% w/w, -4.1% YTD), and the DXY strengthened to 101.93 (+1.5% w/w, +3.7% YTD). US 10-year Treasury yield eased 1.2bp to 5.28%, while Bund 10Y edged up 0.2bp to…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated with an upward bias in October, as concerns persist that the BoJ will tighten too slowly. The Fed is projected to hike 25bp on Oct 28 while the BoJ holds on Oct 29-30. Fiscal policy is the key: the FY27…
Latin American equities stood out as a diversifier in Q3 2026, supported by attractive valuations and an improving policy mix, while global equities stayed resilient despite higher yields. US Q2 GDP grew 2.2% annualised, core inflation reached 3.0%, but…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
Markets enter the week cautiously after Friday's weak 29k US payrolls print, with politics dominating. Quebec votes tonight: the separatist PQ may win around 30% and a minority or slim majority, yet majorities oppose both the PQ and separation. Quebec already…
Foreign investors held about $9.2 trillion of US Treasury debt at end-2025, roughly 31% of publicly held debt, but foreign holdings have grown more slowly than total Treasury supply. Within foreign holdings, private investors now account for 58.1% versus…