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GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com SCOTIABANK FORECAST September 9, 2026 Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and…
Invesco's Global Head of Research, Benjamin Jones, analyzes the Federal Reserve's stance after Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, expecting the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of the year. He anticipates reduced forward guidance to widen outcome…
BNP Paribas warns that central bank independence is facing its most severe stress test in a century, driven by high sovereign debt, supply-shock inflation, and political attacks. The erosion of credibility could unanchor inflation expectations, raise risk…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to remain below 3% in September 2026, with the BoJ likely raising rates to 1.25%. The yield is forecast to decline to 2.65% by end-FY27 and end-FY28.
State Street's Weekly Economic Perspectives highlights a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, with the bias towards higher rates, while acknowledging a close call for September. Canadian growth rebounded strongly in Q2, driven by consumption and fixed investment,…
Scotiabank Economics published a calendar of economic release dates for September 2026, listing scheduled data releases and central bank meetings for the US, Canada, Europe, the UK, and Japan. The calendar includes key indicators such as ISM, employment…
The COT report for the week ending 25 August 2026 shows hedge funds cutting dollar longs after the US Treasury buyback announcement, with notable short covering in the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and NZ dollar, while yen selling continued. Grain and…
Saxo Bank's Market Quick Take highlights a risk-off start to the week driven by a hawkish Fed Chair speech and renewed Middle East tensions. The USD strengthened, yields rose, and equities faced headwinds, while crude oil surged and gold fell. Digital asset…
OCBC Research's Daily Treasury Outlook for 31 August 2026 highlights a hawkish Fed stance, with increased probability of a September rate hike, and key economic data releases ahead, including US CPI and nonfarm payrolls. The report also covers regional…
OCBC Research's Weekly Research Views covers macro, geopolitical, and credit developments, highlighting a hawkish Fed, US-Iran conflict, and resilient Asia growth. Key forecasts include RBA hike, BNM hold, BoT normalization, BSP hikes, and Singapore/HK growth…
UBS CIO expects limited near-term oil market impact from the US-Venezuela deal despite its strategic significance, maintains Brent at USD 85/bbl for Dec 2026 with upside risks, favors broad commodities, keeps Neutral on US energy equities, sees Fed rate hike…
MUFG's Asia FX Talk discusses the hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations following Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which has strengthened the US dollar and poses headwinds for Asian currencies, particularly THB and IDR, while SGD and MYR appear more…
MUFG's fixed income commentary highlights upcoming Japanese economic indicators, with forecasts for industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, and consumption, providing insights into potential impacts on JGB auctions and monetary policy.
Saxo Bank's Market Quick Take highlights Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Warsh's speech as the key event, with markets positioning for a hawkish tone. Equities show a narrow tech-led rally in the US, while Europe falls on French political risk. Bitcoin holds near…
ING's Asia week ahead focuses on GDP releases from India and Australia, China's PMIs, Philippines inflation, Japan's retail sales and industrial production, and Korea's trade and inflation. India's GDP growth is expected to ease to 7.5% YoY but remain robust;…
ING Think expects a quiet FX session with focus on Fed Chair Warsh's speech and long-end Treasury performance. They foresee limited dollar movement, with potential gains if hawkish signals emerge. EUR/USD likely rangebound supported by ECB tightening…
Nomura expects further USD weakness due to subdued US inflation, FOMC rate hold, unwinding of long USD positions, and Treasury buybacks. Positive supports include foreign equity inflows and carry trades, but medium-term bearish view on USD remains.
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook highlights a tech-led rally in US equities boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, while oil prices rose on geopolitical tensions with Iran. Central bank speakers at Jackson Hole maintained a cautious inflation stance. BSP hiked rates…
Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, with uncertainty over whether he will provide near-term guidance or focus on broader themes. Canada's Q2 GDP is expected to show strong growth, potentially the fastest in the G7. Eurozone…
State Street's SPDR Gold Strategy Team discusses how Asian asset owners, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, and central banks, are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic asset rather than just a tactical hedge. This shift is driven…