JGB yield scenarios for September and 2H FY26-FY28 · 【 Fixed Income Commentary - Japan Economic & Financial Weekly 】

中文标题

MUFG：9月及2025财年下半年至2026财年日本国债收益率情景展望 · 【固定收益评论 - 日本经济与金融周刊】

MUFG08/31/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to remain below 3% in September 2026, with the BoJ likely raising rates to 1.25%. The yield is forecast to decline to 2.65% by end-FY27 and end-FY28.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 08/31/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

10-year JGB yield forecast: end-FY26 2.90%, end-FY27 2.65%, end-FY28 2.65%.
BoJ expected to raise policy rate to 1.25% in September 2026, 1.50% in January 2027, 1.75% in June 2027.

Key numbers

10yr JGB yield end-FY26: 2.90%
10yr JGB yield end-FY27: 2.65%
10yr JGB yield end-FY28: 2.65%
BoJ policy rate Sep-2026: 1.25%

Main risks

If BoJ hikes faster than expected, JGB yields may rise sharply.
Fiscal expansion concerns could push yields higher.
US inflation resurgence could impact JGB yields.

Corresponding source evidence

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Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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