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Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
State Street expects the FOMC to hike on September 16 and again in December after August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, though it disputes the case for tightening. The ECB delivered a second 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and signalled more. The BoJ is expected…
The dollar finally aligned with supportive drivers: elevated front-end rates, oil near $107, and soft risk sentiment. DXY notched its strongest session since the Jackson Hole speech. USD/JPY briefly hit 155 and may extend to 156-157. The Fed hiked as…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
US equities fell as tech slid on AI safety comments, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and Nasdaq 0.6%. The US 10Y yield briefly breached 5% for the first time since October 2023, with markets pricing about a 90% probability of a 25bp Fed hike. Middle East tensions…
Markets opened the week risk-off after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure, reportedly lasting weeks, and AI leaders' calls to slow development; President Trump's pushback against AI controls limited US equity losses. Brent rose 1.6% to $106.3/bbl and…
The ECB raised policy rates by 25bp to 2.50%, a unanimous, scenario-robust decision, reaffirming a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside; growth risks to the downside. Lagarde struck a…
Since the Takaichi Cabinet formed, JGB yields rose led by the 10-year sector on BoJ-behind-the-curve fears, with the 2s10s spread widening. That trend has recently reversed after coordinated US-Japan yen-buying intervention in late July and remarks by US…
MUFG expects the BoJ to raise its uncollateralized overnight call rate target from around 1% to around 1.25% at the September meeting, a move the market has priced with greater than 90% probability. The 10-year JGB yield is likely to remain volatile in the…
A triple threat of AI growth concerns, elevated bond yields and an oil price spike has driven broad risk-off flows, lifting the US dollar. The week ahead is packed with the FOMC, BoE and BoJ, while a 25bp BoJ hike is fully priced and Fed Chair Warsh is…
Natixis expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate to a 4.0% upper bound at the September 2026 meeting, the first hike in three years and the first under Chair Warsh. August core CPI came in above expectations on one-off factors, cementing hike expectations. A…
Every headline volatility measure fell Friday except skew, which rose 5.08% to 154.49 as the S&P 500 gained 0.86% to 7,656.98. The 18 September expiry prices a 1.33% move, down from 141 points, though three central bank decisions fall inside that window. The…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
BNP Paribas' 11 September 2026 markets snapshot shows Brent at $104.73, up 17.1% in a week and 72.1% year to date, alongside gold at $4363. Euro-area yields rose sharply, with Bund 10Y at 3.48% and OAT 10Y at 4.35%, while US Treasury 10Y was 4.97%. EUR/USD…
The ECB raised its main policy rate 25bp to 2.5% and revised up growth and inflation forecasts, with inflation seen peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026; markets priced half a hike in October and more than three additional hikes by mid-2027, a hawkish read despite no…
MUFG keeps a constructive ringgit view despite higher oil prices and rising subsidy costs. Malaysia's electronics trade surplus offsets the larger oil import bill, inflation near 1.8% and anchored expectations let Bank Negara hold at 2.75%, and returning…
In the week to 8 September 2026, speculators aggressively bought JPY, flipping a sizeable short to a small net long of 10,800 contracts ahead of the BoJ meeting, while the aggregate dollar long fell 29% to USD 19.5bn, a 14-week low. Copper's net long hit a…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
The dollar enters the week stronger, supported by a hot CPI print that has nearly sealed a 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday and by rising oil after Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline following drone attacks from Iraq. ING favours moderate USD strength, sees…
CommBank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates 0.25pp this week to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023, after August core inflation rose 0.3% and markets priced about an 85% chance of a hike. The Bank of England is seen holding at 3.75%,…