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Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75% and introduced swap and NDF measures to support the rupiah, signalling currency stability remains its priority. Foreign inflows have been positive for four months but remain modest, while a wider current account…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
US equities were mixed as financials rotated into tech, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record while the Dow fell 0.4%. WTI dropped 5.5% to USD90.52/bbl and Brent fell 1.8% to USD98.53/bbl after Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days…
MUFG expects Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate on hold, as a steadier IDR masks elevated US 10-year yields and oil near US$100/bbl. The bank flags upside risks to IDR from domestic policy uncertainty and external pressures, while highlighting strong…
This Natixis report, written by Benito Berber and Selin Aker, examines Brazil's upcoming general election and its potential impact on asset prices, particularly the Brazilian Real (BRL). The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
In August 2026, EM debt proved resilient. Hard currency sovereigns returned +0.89% (JP Morgan EMBI GD), led by spread tightening of 10bps to ~235bps, as Treasury yields steadied at 4.75% on the 10-year. Local currency debt returned +0.90% (GBI-EM GD), driven…
Emerging market hard currency bonds outperformed in August 2026, with shorter-maturity bonds leading year-to-date as higher US Treasury term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks under pressure long duration. The 10-year US Treasury ended at 4.75%,…
Short-dated EM hard currency bonds outperformed longer-dated paper over the first eight months of 2026, as rising US 10-year Treasury yields, higher term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks tested duration. EM hard currency spreads stayed firm,…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
A potentially historic El Niño is developing against a fragile global backdrop. NOAA assigns a greater than 90% probability it reaches 'very strong' levels between October and December 2026, and a 69% probability it becomes a historic event. The bigger risk…
Natixis expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate to a 4.0% upper bound at the September 2026 meeting, the first hike in three years and the first under Chair Warsh. August core CPI came in above expectations on one-off factors, cementing hike expectations. A…
OCBC Research views President Prabowo's appointment of Suahasil Nazara as Indonesia's finance minister as credible, given his technocratic background and Ministry of Finance experience. The near-term priority is keeping the 2026 fiscal deficit under the 3% of…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…