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French bonds outperformed, with yields down about 10bp across the curve and spreads over bunds tighter, after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen proposed cutting the deficit from 5-6% to just over 2% by 2032 and called for ECB action. Quebec's election…
French manufacturing rebounded only 0.3% in August after a 0.8% July decline, and the three-month trend remains clearly negative at -1.9%. Weak orders, high inventories, falling goods consumption and tightening financial conditions reinforce the risk of…
September 2026 was the worst month of the year for US IG (-2.72%), US HY (-2.52%) and Asia IG (-2.04%) total returns, with Asia USD HY relatively resilient at -1.20%. The Fed's first hike in roughly three years pushed the 10Y UST to a 2026 high of 5.29% (30Y…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
Long-dated US Treasuries closed at multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at 5.66% and the 10-year at 5.30%, while the 2-year was near 4.82%. Wall Street advanced on easing near-term Fed hike expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite setting a record close.…
ABN AMRO argues current OAT-Bund spreads price more than France's weaker fiscal fundamentals: the OAT-CDS basis has widened sharply, and an unexplained spread component (beyond euro-area factors, rates volatility and French CDS-implied credit risk) sits near…
Middle East Daily, 6 October 2026. Brent December futures stabilize near USD 101/b and WTI November just under USD 90/b after Saudi OSP cuts and Yemeni advances toward Bab el Mandeb. Kuwait output recovered to ~2m b/d, 75% of pre-war 2.6m b/d, as Hormuz…
French bond market turbulence is weighing on the euro via a contained fiscal risk premium and a sharp repricing of ECB rate expectations, leaving EUR/USD risks skewed to the downside toward 1.110 or 1.100. The dollar stays broadly supported, the BoE speaker…
Treasury yields reached two-decade highs, with the 10Y at 5.31% and 30Y at 5.67%, while tech-led gains lifted the S&P 500 to near a record high. The dollar extended a three-week rally, nearing its strongest 2026 levels. Brent fell 1.9% to $100.32 after Saudi…
MUFG argues Asia FX can outperform in the near term, favoring tech-linked TWD and KRW, then MYR and SGD, as strong AI exports and a less acute regional diesel supply picture support resilience. European political and fiscal risks dominate EUR, prompting a…
The yen gave back recent gains after a Bloomberg report that Japan's GPIF did not discuss portfolio allocation at last month's meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. MUFG notes the yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since end-August, with…
Pictet keeps an overweight stance on global equities despite a two-decade-narrow earnings yield gap versus bonds, citing over 30% MSCI World earnings growth this year and over 65% for emerging markets. It holds neutral duration on DM government bonds and…
J.P. Morgan keeps a positive relative stance on developed-market SMID caps versus large caps, noting the Russell 2500 rose ~16% year to date as of September 16 versus ~10% for the S&P 500. Easing wage inflation, favorable debt structures, heavy…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
European government bond market turmoil may prompt further dovish ECB repricing, as second-round inflation risks remain limited and labour markets are less tight than in 2022. Wide credit spreads and weaker sentiment tighten financial conditions. Longer-dated…
MUFG argues the appeal of JGB yields to overseas real-money investors, key for stable absorption, has diminished. After deducting FX hedging costs, relative JGB attractiveness has fallen versus major government bonds, especially at 10-year maturities, because…
As of 2 October 2026, Brent crude rose to $102.25 (+1.8% w/w, +68.0% YTD), gold fell to $4,145 (-4.7% w/w, -4.1% YTD), and the DXY strengthened to 101.93 (+1.5% w/w, +3.7% YTD). US 10-year Treasury yield eased 1.2bp to 5.28%, while Bund 10Y edged up 0.2bp to…
The EU's manufactured goods trade deficit with China reached €400bn over twelve months, driven by a 7% y/y rise in imports in H1 2026. However, exports excluding Germany have stabilised and even grown, with declines concentrated in automotive and electronics.…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated with an upward bias in October, as concerns persist that the BoJ will tighten too slowly. The Fed is projected to hike 25bp on Oct 28 while the BoJ holds on Oct 29-30. Fiscal policy is the key: the FY27…
Latin American equities stood out as a diversifier in Q3 2026, supported by attractive valuations and an improving policy mix, while global equities stayed resilient despite higher yields. US Q2 GDP grew 2.2% annualised, core inflation reached 3.0%, but…