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Risk sentiment is improving — equities at records, Brent briefly below $100 and rate volatility easing — yet ING warns the relief is uneven and rates are unlikely to settle calmly. Marine Le Pen's fiscal plan tightened the 10y OAT/Bund spread by almost 10bp…
France's National Rally plans €136bn in annual savings and aims for sub-50% GDP public spending by 2032. While acknowledging consolidation, ING sees major delivery risks: dubious savings bases (VAT gap, motorway revenue, EU contribution), €69.3bn of tax cuts…
The US dollar may stabilize around 102.0 in DXY, but risks are skewed to the upside. The September FOMC minutes are unlikely to surprise dovishly given the hawkish dot plot, while soft post-meeting data sets a high bar for a positive dollar reaction. Oil…
The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a fourth straight record close of 7,818.93, while volatility eased across tenors and the MOVE index fell 7.39%. The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, above consensus. Brent crude traded near $101.5 after reversing a…
German industrial production rebounded 2% month-on-month in August after a 1.2% July decline and rose 2.3% year-on-year, driven by construction and manufacturing while autos lagged on summer holidays. The heatwave's economic damage proved milder than feared.…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
US August trade deficit widened 13.7% to USD105.6bn on a USD2.4bn semiconductor import jump, underscoring the AI build-out. German factory orders fell 10.6% MoM. BoJ's Ueda flagged broadening inflation but tied further hikes to data; Fed's Daly conditioned…
The oil market is caught between improving Persian Gulf supply and continued attacks on ships, with ICE Brent dipping toward $97/bbl before settling above $100/bbl. Middle distillates have weakened as the ICE gasoil crack fell to about $73/bbl from over…
Brent for December delivery trades near USD 101.60/b, up about 1%, and WTI is back above USD 90/b, up around 0.8%, as fighting in Yemen and the Bab al Mandeb waterway offset recovering Gulf flows. The API reported a 2.1m bbl draw in US commercial crude…
MUFG expects the RBI to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today, but views the pause as temporary. Higher oil prices, weather-related risks and resilient domestic demand keep upside inflation pressures elevated into 2027. MUFG forecasts two 25bp hikes in…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
US tariffs on European goods had a limited macro impact in 2025, with GDP effects between -0.1 and +0.15 percentage points, as exports to the US are only about 3% of EU GDP and roughly 90% of the tariff burden fell on American buyers. However, Chinese…
Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…
Euro corporate primary markets reopened in September, with supply rising to €56bn from €25bn in August and YTD issuance at €389bn, about 11% ahead of last year and above the 2020 YTD high. TMT led at €15bn; corporate hybrids set a record. Bank bond supply…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, with AI and capital goods investment driving the cycle. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK and Eurozone, and is expected to peak in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, though energy inflation may spread.…
Czech September CPI rose to 2.5% y/y, with core near 3.1% and services at 4.6% y/y. Fuel, regulated energy and a weaker koruna are lifting goods prices; food disinflation is seen reversing. ING assigns an 80% probability to a November CNB hike and 30% to a…
France faces rising bond market stress from a toxic mix of high debt, political paralysis, weak growth and limited revenue room. The government proposes €54bn (1.7% of GDP) fiscal consolidation for 2027, targeting a 5% deficit. ABN AMRO's base case assumes…
August heat and drought hit Hungarian retail sales, which rose just 2.4% year-on-year, below ING's 4.2% estimate, while industrial output jumped 8.7% year-on-year on a working-day-adjusted basis, the strongest since late 2022. ING keeps its 2026 industrial…