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MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
ING argues the US 10-year Treasury yield should stay above 5.00% and move back toward 5.25%, with a possible overshoot to 5.25–5.5% that could last into Q1 2027. Firm retail sales, low jobless claims and high PPI, plus no fiscal deficit action, support higher…
Long-end yields have calmed after recent multi-decade highs, but ING sees at least one more leg of weakness that could push the US 10-year yield into a 5.25-5.5% range, with jitters possibly extending into Q1 2027. Drivers include fiscal issuance pressure,…
ING argues EUR/USD will remain in a 1.10-1.15 range over the next three to six months, as a hawkish Fed and ECB repricing tied to French fiscal concerns keep real rate differentials at their widest since 2022. Neither driver looks set to reverse soon. A…
ING now expects the Bank of England to hike rates in November and February, driven by elevated natural gas prices and a brief CPI peak above 4% in early 2027. The hikes are framed as insurance, with cuts possible by late 2027 if second-round effects remain…
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its base rate unchanged on 20 October, as inflation remains benign (headline 1.6% YoY, core 1.9% YoY) but uncertainty over the unpublished 2027 budget and global risk sentiment favors caution. Governor Varga…
ING expects eurozone growth to moderate after a solid third quarter, with 2026 average growth of 1.0% and 1.2% in 2027 assuming energy prices normalise. HICP inflation rose to 3.8% in September, with underlying at 2.5%, and is likely to end 2026 above 4%…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
Higher bond yields normally lift bank earnings via wider net interest margins, yet in September 2026 the global financial sector underperformed global equities even as the US 10-year yield hit a 19-year high. Standard Chartered sees this weakness as an…
France's fiscal troubles and widening spreads have raised the question of whether the ECB could use its Transmission Protection Instrument. The bar for TPI activation remains high: it would at minimum require France's budget to be fully adopted, and early…
One-day volatility rose about a third to 14.11 while the one-year measure barely moved, so the curve repriced a window rather than a view. September headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%. Equities sold the print, with the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the…
Natixis analysts warn that French banks, despite strong credit fundamentals, remain structurally exposed to sovereign risk ahead of the 2027 presidential election. They cut France's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and see the public deficit at -5.4% of GDP…
The report expects the Fed to hold in October and hike 25bp in December, with no further tightening in 2027 despite market pricing of 50bp. The ECB is seen hiking in December, not October, though surging German yields already deliver tightening equivalent to…
France's fiscal position resembles Italy in 2011 and Greece in 2009 on debt and deficit metrics, but it is not Greece in 2010: the current account is balanced, household savings are around 18%, and the effective interest rate on the debt stock remains below…
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month in August 2026, the third consecutive decline, as chemicals output dropped 1.7% from January and autos and pharma weakened since June. Computer, electronic and machinery production, partly driven by…
A hot US CPI initially lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, but both reversed sharply lower, with the 10-year yield closing below 5.10%. US equities sold off, challenging the usual dollar-risk correlation. Weak Australian jobs data and softer risk sentiment…
A hot September US CPI briefly lifted short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar, but the move reversed within hours as investors focused on a sell-off in debt issued by high-profile AI companies, notably Coreweave's 2032 bonds at 78 cents. ING reads the…
September US headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline up 34.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 16bp before reversing to about 4.73%, and the 10-year fell below 5.11% as weak risk sentiment drove a haven bid.…
September US headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, 3.7% YoY, on a 9.1% gasoline surge; core rose 0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY. October hike pricing rose above 50% before easing to 35%, while the Fed's Collins backed a further hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, Nasdaq 1.88%; the 2Y…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…