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US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
Natixis's September 2026 US dual mandate snapshot: August payrolls rebounded 162k, broadly based, erasing earlier soft prints, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and headline 0.4% m/m. Because most policymakers already saw labor as near…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…
August real personal consumption rose a robust 0.9% m/m, leaving spending 0.8% above its pre-Covid trend, and Q3 PCE is tracking 3.7% QoQ annualized. Yet real disposable personal income is growing only 1.3% y/y amid elevated inflation, implying households are…
Interest rates have risen across developed markets, but credit fundamentals remain resilient: strong earnings, healthy bank capital and liquidity have kept credit anchored. US high-yield revenue rose over 10% and operating profit over 14% year over year,…
Poland's flash CPI accelerated to 4.0% YoY in September from 3.4% in August, mainly due to a 9.2% MoM surge in fuel prices after the standard 23% VAT rate was reinstated. Core inflation eased to 3.0-3.1% YoY, suggesting limited broad price pressures. A…
Northwest European gas storage sits at 62% capacity, about 10bcm below year-ago levels, setting up a tight Q4-26 winter. Under the base case TTF averages €76/MWh, peaking at €80/MWh; an adverse cold winter scenario averages €122/MWh. The energy-driven shock…
Barclays Research's Q4 2026 Global Outlook argues that despite headwinds such as oil above $100, renewed geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates and rising bond yields, the foundations of global growth remain intact. Strong corporate earnings, an…
UOB projects the US economy stays resilient but bifurcated into 2027, with the Fed on hold through 2026 and cuts resuming only in 2027; a September hike remains a live risk. Fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and debt above US$40tn keep long-end UST yields…
The dollar index reached 101.61, close to June's 101.80 year-to-date high, before New York Fed President Williams pushed back against an October hike, saying there is "no need for urgency." Markets pared October hike pricing to about 12bp from 18bp. Williams…
This Scotiabank Economics calendar lists October 2026 release dates for the US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Japan. Highlights include FOMC and Bank of Canada meetings alongside the ECB, plus US CPI, eurozone CPI and GDP, and Canada GDP, CPI and jobs. The…