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With 10-year yields above 5% in the US and Australia, the manager argues high-quality bonds again offer income plus a hedge if synchronized tightening into an oil supply shock slows growth. It favours front-end Australian government bonds, expects RBA cuts in…
The euro fell to fresh year-to-date lows against the dollar (1.1161) and yen (176.41) as fiscal contagion fears from a French government bond sell-off intensified. The 10-year French yield neared 5.0%, with its spread over Bunds above 140bps, while the 2-year…
New Zealand's recovery is uneven but resilient, with filled jobs up 0.9% in the year to August and agriculture driving regional growth. Inflation pressures persist in rate-insensitive sectors; annual CPI hit 4.1% in June and fuel costs are rising again.…
Westpac reads the RBA's September 2026 unanimous 25bp hike to 4.60% as opening the door to a follow-up move in November, absent a lasting resolution of the Middle East conflict or another event that significantly lowers Australia's energy cost outlook. The…
The global FX market is being reshaped by the worst bond sell-off in decades. The 10-year UST yield reached 5.34%, a 24-year high, after its sharpest quarterly rise in 32 years. This lifted the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1259 after touching 1.1215, its lowest…
US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
US equities closed modestly higher on 1 October 2026 (S&P 500 +0.2%), while Brent crude settled above USD100/bbl after reports Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. US final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.9 and ISM prices-paid jumped to…
The RBI is widely expected to begin tightening with a 25bp hike to 5.5%, as rising oil and food prices push CPI above target. Philippine inflation is seen rising to 6.8% YoY on fuel and El Niño food pressures. Japan's data point to weak consumption and a…
Westpac's Cliff Notes flags a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, with a follow-up in November viewed as likely if Middle East conflict does not resolve. Underlying CPI rose 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y). US PCE eased but core stays at 3.0% y/y; Japan's Tankan supports a possible…
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
This weekly note reviews two developments in New Zealand: an upbeat Pre-Election Fiscal Update and a generally resilient September business confidence reading. No specific figures, forecasts or market calls are provided in the available text. The publication…
US 2Q GDP was revised up to 2.2% q/q saar and September ADP payrolls rose by 90,000, while August headline PCE slowed to 3.4% y/y and core PCE held at 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.2849% and the DXY was broadly unchanged. Equities closed mixed.…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
CBA analysis sees Australia's rental market staying tight near term: the national vacancy rate is about 1.8%, below the 2015-2019 average of roughly 2.8%, and advertised rents across the eight capital cities are rising 5.7% year-on-year. Slower population…
The Cotality national home value index fell 1.1% in September, following downwardly revised declines of 1.2% in August and 1.4% in July. Annual growth flattened, leaving prices 5.2% below their March peak. Declines were widespread across major cities, led by…