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The yen gave back recent gains after a Bloomberg report that Japan's GPIF did not discuss portfolio allocation at last month's meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. MUFG notes the yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since end-August, with…
Schroders argues Australia's equity market faces higher-for-longer bond yields, with Australian bonds at 5.4% and Japan's 10-year yield above 3%. The ASX200 rose 2.7% over the past year but fell in September. Firmus's $8b IPO, the second-largest in Australian…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
Markets enter the week cautiously after Friday's weak 29k US payrolls print, with politics dominating. Quebec votes tonight: the separatist PQ may win around 30% and a minority or slim majority, yet majorities oppose both the PQ and separation. Quebec already…
The report highlights that a softer US September labor market update and downward PCE inflation revisions dramatically lowered market expectations for an October Fed rate hike, aligning with the house view. In Australia, the RBA delivered its fourth hike of…
State Street and Barclays argue that systematic credit investing was historically constrained by trading frictions, but recent market developments—growth in electronic trading, credit ETFs and portfolio trading—have reduced these barriers. The paper describes…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…
The US is pursuing a government-led mine-to-magnet strategy combining domestic production, friend-shoring with Australia and Brazil, and recycling to reduce reliance on China's rare earth supply chain. Federal support now includes purchase agreements, price…
Australian credit markets face persistent inflation, renewed rate volatility and record issuance. The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to a 15-year high, with markets pricing a terminal rate near 5%. Index spreads widened 3bps, with higher-beta names…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
With 10-year yields above 5% in the US and Australia, the manager argues high-quality bonds again offer income plus a hedge if synchronized tightening into an oil supply shock slows growth. It favours front-end Australian government bonds, expects RBA cuts in…
September brought a violent global bond repricing, with the US 10-year yield rising over 50bp to 5.28% and the 30-year to 5.63%, on strong US growth, an oil supply shock and a hawkish Fed hike to 4%. Equities held up at the index level (S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq…
Renewed Gulf conflict pushed oil above US$100 and drove developed-market bond yields to multi-decade highs. The Fed, ECB, RBA and BOJ all tightened as markets priced further hikes. Schroders argues elevated starting yields — portfolio yield ~6.5% — provide an…
The euro fell to fresh year-to-date lows against the dollar (1.1161) and yen (176.41) as fiscal contagion fears from a French government bond sell-off intensified. The 10-year French yield neared 5.0%, with its spread over Bunds above 140bps, while the 2-year…
New Zealand's recovery is uneven but resilient, with filled jobs up 0.9% in the year to August and agriculture driving regional growth. Inflation pressures persist in rate-insensitive sectors; annual CPI hit 4.1% in June and fuel costs are rising again.…
Westpac reads the RBA's September 2026 unanimous 25bp hike to 4.60% as opening the door to a follow-up move in November, absent a lasting resolution of the Middle East conflict or another event that significantly lowers Australia's energy cost outlook. The…
The global FX market is being reshaped by the worst bond sell-off in decades. The 10-year UST yield reached 5.34%, a 24-year high, after its sharpest quarterly rise in 32 years. This lifted the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1259 after touching 1.1215, its lowest…
US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…