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Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
J.P. Morgan analysts say housing affordability is at its weakest US level since 2008: buying a median-priced home needs 43% of median household income, 30-year mortgage rates are near 7%, and only 35.2% of under-35s own homes. Chronic supply-demand…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
State Street expects the Bank of Canada to hold in October after September employment fell 68k and unemployment rose to 6.5%, and favors a March BoJ hike over December or January. US services ISM stayed solid at 54.9 while consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 near…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
Spain's PM dissolved both houses of Parliament on 5 October 2026, calling early elections for 29 November. Natixis sees a likely shift from left to right, with a PP-led coalition including Vox. Spanish fundamentals remain solid, with growth above the euro…
A weekend attack on Riyadh airport briefly pushed Brent above USD 105.50 before it reversed to near USD 103.70, as resilient crude flows, Russia's partial diesel export ban lift and an energy ceasefire offset tensions. Gold stalled above USD 4,200 at USD…
CommBank's Wage and Labour Insights show annual wage growth steady at 3.3% and quarterly growth unchanged at 0.8% in the three months to September 2026, while monthly annualised growth slowed to 3.3% from 3.5% in August. The bank says the Fair Work…
OCBC's weekly macro view sees global demand stabilising unevenly, led by AI investment. The Fed keeps further rate hikes in play, supporting the USD but capping breakout odds, while French fiscal fears cap EUR upside. Indonesia's headline CPI rose to 3.3% YoY…
OCBC expects US September headline CPI at 0.6% MoM on fuel, with core at 0.2%, while Singapore's advance 3Q26 GDP is seen at 5.7% YoY and MAS is anticipated to steepen the S$NEER slope by 25bps to 1.5%. The 10-year UST yield closed at 5.243% and the S&P 500…
MUFG reports the dollar index consolidating just above 102 ahead of Wednesday's US September CPI, with the 2-year Treasury yield down about 20bp from its 29th September peak after softer PCE and NFP data. The rate market prices roughly 5bp of Fed hikes this…
Westpac NZ argues higher fuel costs, a weaker NZD and a soft housing market have shifted the near-term outlook. Annual CPI is expected to dip to 3.7% in September before rising to a three-year high of 4.2% by December, half a point above Westpac's prior…
Westpac's Australia and NZ Weekly argues that statistical revisions — to US PCE inflation, UK productivity and Canadian population — show measurement is imperfect and warrant humility in policy pronouncements. Australian data showed consumer sentiment down…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
The USD sits near year-to-date highs with momentum easing. MUFG expects the Fed to hold rates this month absent a big September CPI upside surprise, noting recent USD strength increasingly reflects overseas weakness, notably euro area energy-shock and French…
Italy has passed a new electoral law aimed at curbing fragmentation and encouraging pre-election coalitions, which briefly tightened the 10Y BTP-Bund spread but left the move limited given implementation risk. Natixis forecasts the spread at 90bp by end-2026…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…