省级转售市场 9月2026

关键论点

• 支撑固定按揭利率的全球债券收益率走高，已对加拿大楼市构成压力，8月销量为六个月来首次下降。
• 即便假设加拿大央行在潜在通胀接近目标、原油价格逐步回落的情况下2027年前按兵不动，道明仍上调了明年债券收益率预测（相对6月）。
• 加拿大房屋销量与平均房价的近期预测被下调；到2027年销量仍将远低于疫情前水平。
• 温和的季度增长依赖被压抑需求的释放、就业市场逐步改善，以及加拿大债券收益率自第四季度起至明年小幅下行。

对应原文证据

1. economics.td.com TD Economics • Canada has not been immune to the recent rise in global bond yields, which reflects a more challenging back - drop for fiscal and monetary policy (see here ).
2. • With the forces behind the climb in rates set to linger, we’ve upgraded our forecast for bond yields through next year, relative to our prior forecast in June (Chart 1). · next year
3. This upgrade comes even under our baseline assumption that the Bank of Canada remains on hold through 2027 amid near-target underlying inflation and an expected gradual easing in crude oil prices. · 2027